The latest friction between Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov and Moscow’s siloviki was not an attack intended to unseat Kadyrov. It was not even a conflict per se. Instead, it was an attempt to reformat Moscow’s approach to Chechnya. The contract with Kadyrov isn’t being annulled; it’s just being rewritten before its next extension.
In order to keep the ranks closed and to sustain the Stockholm syndrome of the fortress’s defenders there must be constant discoveries of “a fifth column” and “national traitors.” That’s the only sense in which Russian authorities need liberals.
Russia’s current president is not planning on staying at the helm forever, since he is not ready to raise the retirement age. His inaction will destroy Russia’s economy, at the very latest by 2030.
The Chechen connection to the Nemtsov’s murder has split the ruling elite. Putin’s problem is that Kadyrov has completely cleared Chechnya of all rivals, either Chechen or Russian—having fed and groomed his “dragon,” he has no Plan B in Chechnya.
Putin and Kadyrov resemble Siamese twins, whose separation will result in complication for both of them, and thus for the country at large. Neither one of them stood to benefit from Boris Nemtsov’s death.
The perpetrators of violence have staked their claim to power, or at least a more active role in formulating the regime’s identity and methods. If we are to assume that the president is not directly linked to Nemtsov’s murder, it seems that someone else wants to push Putin in a more decisive and punitive direction.
It is impossible to imagine Ramzan Kadyrov calling his subordinates and directly instructing them to commit the murder of Boris Nemtsov. However, the xenophobia and fear of the West characteristic of some segments of Russia’s Muslim community, including Muslims in the North Caucasus, creates a favorable climate for such acts.
In the wake of the murder of one of Russia’s most fervent opposition leaders, Boris Nemtsov, Russia remains less in a state of shock than in a state of confusion about what this means for the country’s future. Eurasia Outlook asked Carnegie’s experts to share their thoughts on how the event will change political life in Russia.
Regardless of who the shooter was and whose orders he was carrying out, a country where a critic of the regime is forced to fear being killed on the street rather than being arrested at a political rally is an entirely different country altogether.
