Carnegie Moscow Center
The tensions between Russia and the West heightened over the issues of compliance with the INF treaty. In this case, it would not be prudent for Russia to seriously compromise its long-term security yet again while pursuing tactical goals or relying on superficial arguments.
Kyiv and Moscow are on a collision course. They may already be past the point of no return where a negotiated solution might have kept the crisis from escalating.
Prudence dictates that Russia should not invade Ukraine. However, if Putin decides differently, the Ukraine crisis will immediately become a Russia crisis, and then a European one.
Ukraine’s political heat wave will last well into the coming fall and winter—unless Ukraine, the West, and Russia change their current course.
Even now, six months into the Ukrainian crisis, Western leaders don’t know how far Vladimir Putin will go in Ukraine. The United States should immediately re-establish real channels of communication with Putin and his inner circle.
Some are calling for the Obama administration to retaliate by backing out of this or other arms-control treaties. There are better options.
The United States seems intent to force Russia into capitulation over Ukraine, a situation caused by a poor understanding of economics on the part of Putin’s advisers. While low intensity battle will likely linger on, Russia remains in a more maneuverable position to offer a deal to the United States.
During the Cold War, both Washington and Moscow actively encouraged, financed, and supported proxy wars across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In the eyes of many influential figures in Moscow, that is precisely what is happening in Ukraine today.
China will study U.S. strategy toward Russia and draw its own conclusions. Its interests are in keeping Russia as its stable strategic hinterland and a natural-resource base.
The Ukraine crisis has ended the period in Russian-Western relations that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and has opened a new period of heightened rivalry, even confrontation, between former Cold War adversaries.