Carnegie Moscow Center
The Kremlin now sees the U.S. goal as the toppling of the Putin regime. That said, expecting Putin to back off betrays a lack of understanding of the gravity of the situation. It is no longer just a struggle for Ukraine, but a battle for Russia.
The MH17 crisis within the larger Ukraine crisis is likely to lead to the politicization of the conflict.
The leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Borodai and Igor Strelkov, are both Russian citizens who worked for the intelligence services, fought in Chechnya, spent time in Transnistria and worked for the ultra-nationalist newspaper, Zavtra. Putin must know that they have become a toxic liability.
If the investigators’ verdict on the Malaysia Airlines plane crash does eventually fall against Russia, Vladimir Putin will survive politically, but will have to work hard to restore faith in him, and his good fortune.
With the international investigation of the Malaysian plane crash yet to begin in earnest, the West will base its understanding on evidence supplied mainly by the United States and Russia will see Western actions as punishment not for shooting down the plane, but rather for Moscow’s position on Ukraine.
The Ukraine crisis is testing the complex relationship between Europe, America, and Russia. Yet the gap between the United States and its European allies, as far as policies toward Russia are concerned, is wide and deep.
Allowing Kiev to restore the country’s territorial integrity is the best way to bring real peace to Ukraine. At the same time, pressuring Kiev to declare a new ceasefire that will give the rebels another break will only prolong the conflict.
Russia has stepped forward in Ukraine to protect its vital interests—which the West saw as aggression by a revisionist power. The ensuing conflict will last long and have an impact far beyond Europe.
Russia could use the U.S.-led sanctions to begin its long-delayed re-industrialization and to start building a modern economy.
If Russia wants to stay in the game of global competition, it has no choice but to work toward becoming a civic nation, a rules-based polity, and a modern economy.