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25.05.2018
Political Dispersion: Russia’s New Cabinet

Political Dispersion: Russia’s New Cabinet

The political and administrative dispersion of governance is under way in Russia: regulatory functions are being scattered among government and near-government players, which will inevitably result in the formation of first moderate and then increasingly pronounced polycentricity within the state. Initiative will eventually stop being punishable.
23.05.2018
Respecting Migrants: A New Approach for Conflict Resolution in Eastern Europe

Respecting Migrants: A New Approach for Conflict Resolution in Eastern Europe

The priority in conflict resolution in Eastern Europe should shift from helping the territories affected by the conflicts to helping the people affected by the conflicts. Population mobility in the conflict zones is increasing so rapidly and the population is shrinking so swiftly that in a generation or two there will be no one living there, regardless of the results of conflict resolution.
21.05.2018
For Navalny, Foreign and Domestic Policy Are One

For Navalny, Foreign and Domestic Policy Are One

Alexei Navalny believes that Russia spends too much effort and money on foreign adventures. Yet he cleaves to many establishment ideas about Russia’s role in its neighborhood and is far from advocating the kind of rapprochement with the West for which many foreign observers hope.
17.05.2018
A Letter to John: Where Are U.S.-Russia Relations Headed?

A Letter to John: Where Are U.S.-Russia Relations Headed?

In the decades I spent working with the United States, I acquired quite a large circle of contacts in Washington. Collectively, they represent the so-called American establishment. Today, I’d like to address these Washingtonians as one individual, whom I’ll name John for the sake of simplicity.
16.05.2018
What to Expect from Armenia’s New Leader

What to Expect from Armenia’s New Leader

It’s hard to call Pashinyan left- or right-wing, pro-Western or pro-Russian. He has two images: one of a charismatic revolutionary, capable of getting people on the streets to rally behind him, and the other as a pragmatic politician ready to make compromises and form tactical unions.
15.05.2018
Creative Reporting: What to Expect From the Russian Government in Putin’s Fourth Term

Creative Reporting: What to Expect From the Russian Government in Putin’s Fourth Term

The new Russian government will cease to be a place for formulating strategies and implementing policies. Instead, it will focus on creatively calculating and reporting Russia’s accomplishments to technically meet the president’s expectations.
14.05.2018
The East-West Divide in Europe’s History Wars

The East-West Divide in Europe’s History Wars

Diverging narratives about history and about World War II in particular are causing a widening rift between the post-Communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the older Western European nations of the EU.
7.05.2018
Armenia’s Revolution and the Legacy of 1988

Armenia’s Revolution and the Legacy of 1988

The unexpected collapse of Armenia’s ruling regime is better understood if you study the story of Armenia’s break with the Soviet regime in 1988. The country has a legacy of peaceful protest, national solidarity, but is also trapped by a strong nationalist discourse.
3.05.2018
How Western Sanctions Will Alter Ties Between Russian Big Business and the Kremlin

How Western Sanctions Will Alter Ties Between Russian Big Business and the Kremlin

The United States’ latest round of sanctions has hit Russia hard. In the future, the Russian state will have to share the emerging risks and minimize socioeconomic consequences for the impacted regions and industries. This will lead to a new wave of property redistribution based upon state — not economic — interests.
23.04.2018
Russia’s Ban on Telegram Has Politicized the Workspace Overnight

Russia’s Ban on Telegram Has Politicized the Workspace Overnight

The banning of Telegram, one of the most popular messaging apps in Russia, is a serious blow to the public loyalty of ordinary people to the authorities. Ways of getting around the ban are being widely discussed in non-politicized chat groups, and even representatives of the powers that be are expressing discontent, both privately and in public. The move to block the secure messaging service has shown that people are prepared to ignore the ban and enter a gray area—and it’s the authorities themselves who have goaded people into this.
20.04.2018
Permanent Stagnation: Putin’s Invisible Fourth-Term Agenda

Permanent Stagnation: Putin’s Invisible Fourth-Term Agenda

The symbolic and real dimensions of Russian politics are in radical contradiction of each other.
19.04.2018
Sanctions and Retaliation: Where Russia-U.S. Relations Are Headed

Sanctions and Retaliation: Where Russia-U.S. Relations Are Headed

Many more Russian oligarchs, bureaucrats, companies, and businesses can expect to appear on future U.S. sanctions lists. Russia, not seeing an immediate catastrophic effect, will respond to new sanctions by searching for more enemies within and ramping up anti-American propaganda. The United States, which loses nothing from this policy, isn’t likely to initiate change, so it will be up to the Kremlin to change its approach—before it’s too late.
18.04.2018
Moral Protests: How Citizens are Born in Russia

Moral Protests: How Citizens are Born in Russia

It’s a cliché in the Western discussion about Russia to portray Putin as a god-like force in Russian life who demands unfailing obedience from oligarchs and little people alike. Yet recent spontaneous protests in Siberia and a small town near Moscow show how quickly average citizens can mobilize to rail against injustice and the stunning incompetence of their country’s rulers.
12.04.2018
Who Wins From Russia-West Tensions in the Post-Soviet Space?

Who Wins From Russia-West Tensions in the Post-Soviet Space?

The surge of third powers in the post-Soviet space is propelled by the twin engines of rising demand for alternatives to Russia and the West, and growing supply of new ambitious economic and political regional players. The overall effect of these trends is to offer most post-Soviet states an increasing array of foreign, economic, and political options, and a wider and more stable foundation for much-coveted multi-vectoral foreign policies in which they can more often say no, if they want to—to both Moscow and Western capitals.
11.04.2018
A Needless Rivalry? Russia and the EU in Central Asia

A Needless Rivalry? Russia and the EU in Central Asia

Central Asia currently resembles parts of the Middle East before the Arab Spring. In contrast to other parts of the post-Soviet space, where Russian and EU interests are in direct competition, the region has the potential to be a place of cooperation in the name of common goals.
10.04.2018
The Southern Vector: Russia’s Need to Upgrade Its Policy in the South Caucasus

The Southern Vector: Russia’s Need to Upgrade Its Policy in the South Caucasus

To ensure its national security, Russia needs a comprehensive strategy in the South Caucasus region.
4.04.2018
Donbas Businessmen: From Victims to Peace-Builders?

Donbas Businessmen: From Victims to Peace-Builders?

A well-established private sector makes the Donbas conflict different from the separatist conflicts of the early 1990s in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Private business is a strong pro-peace force because lawlessness, a fragile security environment, and a shrinking population and its impoverishment can be crippling to business operations. Engaging the private sector in conflict prevention can contribute to the recovery and consolidation of peace in the region
30.03.2018
Antonov: The Unsung Victim of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Antonov: The Unsung Victim of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia and Ukraine have discussed joint aircraft industry projects numerous times, but in the context of other problems, such as their gas disputes. The two sides brought more and more resources to the table, trying to get a better deal in the conflict. Antonov was just one of the tools used as a bargaining chip in gas price negotiations. Ultimately, the plane manufacturer found itself on the losing side.
28.03.2018
The Yuan’s Russian Vacation: Why Chinese Tourism Barely Benefits Russia’s Budget

The Yuan’s Russian Vacation: Why Chinese Tourism Barely Benefits Russia’s Budget

Contrary to popular belief, Chinese tourism generates very little revenue for the Russian economy. The reason lies in the inner workings of the Chinese tourist economy in Russia, in which visitors are limited to package tours where most payments are made in China or through Chinese banks. The Russian authorities should recognize this problem and stop treating Chinese tourism as the new engine of economic growth.
22.03.2018
A Mandate for Stagnation: After Russia’s Presidential Election

A Mandate for Stagnation: After Russia’s Presidential Election

Vladimir Putin is beginning his fourth term as president of Russia. Andrei Kolesnikov, the head of the Domestic Politics and Political Institutions program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, discusses the elections results, some surprises in the presidential race and what comes next for Russia.
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