New Cold War

23.05.2016

Point of No Return: Finland and Sweden Weigh Up NATO

Russia’s unpredictability means there is a lack of clarity on the direction the country will take after 2018. Is NATO membership really crucial for Finland and Sweden in the long term if Russia follows the best-case scenario, or even if it enters a state of inertia?
15.03.2016

A Well-Timed Retreat: Russia Pulls Back From Syria

President Putin’s announcement that he is pulling back from Syria should not have come as a big surprise. He believes he has met most of his goals there—many of which have nothing to do with Syria itself. Russia has found a way back to the table where the world’s board of directors sits and resolves regional conflicts together.
15.02.2016

The Pope and the Patriarch: Russia’s Search for the Right West

The Western political establishment is hostile to Russia. This makes it all the more important to demonstrate that the Western religious establishment is more sympathetic. Regardless of Putin’s aims, the meeting between Pope and Patriarch has become a landmark event in the history of Christianity.
10.02.2016

Risky Contradictions: Putin’s Stance on Strategic Arms and Missile Defense

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly accused the United States of upsetting the strategic nuclear balance by deploying a missile defense system in Europe, but closer examination of the facts reveals a more complex picture.
12.01.2016

From Isolation to the Board of Directors: Why Russia Supported the United States at the UN

The goal was to return to the club where the destiny of the world is being discussed, not as an ally (because given the current economic disparity, one could only be a subordinate ally) but as a “partner”—a word that is invariably spoken in Russia with phonetic quotation marks: a disobedient, sometimes blunt neighbor with whom considerations of the world order must be shared.
15.12.2015

Russia Needs a Plan C

In the middle of a prolonged confrontation with the West, Russia cannot revive its Western-oriented or Eurasianist foreign policy concepts. In foreign relations, crisis-avoidance mechanisms must be the priority while Russia seeks a new strategic concept. That rethink must be underpinned by domestic reform; otherwise, the Russian state could share the fate of the Romanov regime in World War I.
9.12.2015

The Montenegro Gambit: NATO, Russia, and the Balkans

Montenegro’s veteran leader has maneuvered his country into NATO. Russia is upset, but unlikely to respond in a serious manner.
16.11.2015

The First Strike Trap

A first strike with nuclear weapons in a conflict between the great powers is bound to be catastrophic. At a time when speculation on nuclear weapons use has increased Russia and the United States should restate their commitment to the nuclear war prevention on which they had agreed in the Cold War era.
6.11.2015

The Concert of Vienna: Russia’s New Strategy

Russia sees the renewal of diplomacy on Syria as a chance to lose the status of international pariah. It has found relevance by getting involved in a crisis where Western strategy is full of holes.
2.11.2015

Warriors vs Merchants: Russia’s Foreign Policy Rivals

Vladimir Putin takes advice from three distinct groups of foreign policy ideologists who can be labeled warriors, merchants, and pious believers. Each of them serves a role, but they have very different views of how Russia should develop.
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