War and Peace in the Caucasus

2.07.2014

Caucasus Emir Seeks a Re-Brand

The roots of the insurgency in the North Caucasus remain: local muslims, especially in Dagestan, still experience rule by Moscow as brutal and corrupt and feel they have no stake in Russian society. These roots are only likely to get deeper as Russia becomes more autocratic.
27.06.2014

Shia-Sunni Sectarianism in the Middle East and Its Echo in Azerbaijan

With the conflict reaching Iraq, which reflects to the same religious divisions as in Azerbaijan, the risk is greater that Azerbaijanis Shia and Sunnites will be affected by the sectarianism of the Middle East.
26.06.2014

Sticks and Carrots in Georgia

An exertion of soft power by stealth is Russia's best chance of re-establishing influence in Georgia. And its only chance of success is if the new economic relationship between the EU and Georgia fails to deliver results.
19.06.2014

Coup d’Etat in Abkhazia Without Russia’s Permission

The coup d’état in Abkhazia attracted virtually no media attention in Russia, and even less attention was paid to the parliamentary election in South Ossetia. It seems that after almost six years of Abkhazian and South Ossetian “independence,” these territories stopped being Russia’s headache, only to be replaced by Crimea.
18.06.2014

Georgian Dream’s Day of Disappointment

Local elections in Georgia demonstrated that less than two years after taking office the Georgian Dream has shed a large section of its support.
11.06.2014

An Azerbaijan-American Puzzle

Azerbaijan has picked a fight with the U.S. government. The simplest explanation for this may be that President Aliyev is as paranoid and isolated as their actions suggest. If United States want to maintain influence in Azerbaijan it should find messengers who can get through some thick palace walls.
4.06.2014

Abkhazia’s Extreme Democracy

On June 1 Abkhaz President Alexander Ankvab was forced to resign. The next Abkhaz leader will rule a state that most of the world does not regard as legitimate. He will also struggle to win the same legitimacy at home as his predecessors enjoyed.
30.05.2014

Abkhazia: All Politics Is Local

Abkhazia is in crisis, but it is not a spillover from events in Ukraine. This is overwhelmingly a local crisis. For the past 20 years Abkhazia has lived in a world of its own.
15.05.2014

A Forgotten Front Line

The ceasefire, which halted the war over Nagorny Karabakh 20 years ago, has been broken with grim regularity. Ordinary soldiers and civilians are the ones who pay the price for a lack of agreement on the front line, which is called Karabakh’s Line of Contact.
8.05.2014

A U.S. Challenge on Karabakh

For the first time in many years, the U.S. government made its own policy statement on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the 1994 ceasefire. In his speech, the American co-chair of the Minsk Group of the OSCE issued an invitation to the governments in Baku and Yerevan to step up their commitment to the peace process.
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