

The emergence of the new states of the Caucasus has been strained by territorial disputes. Conflicts smolder in Chechnya, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Terrorism and extremism have spread into the region from neighboring Middle East and Central Asia. Islam has emerged as a factor of public life. Caspian oil and its transit routes to the West have become the object of rivalry between major powers. How these challenges are met will determine the security outlook for Russia, Europe and, in part, the United States.
The militant attack on Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov’s home village has shown the vulnerability of the Kadyrov regime, which is commonly considered the most successful in the North Caucasus and quite capable of guaranteeing stability.
If Russia wants to be a principal security provider and peace guarantor in the CIS space, it will need to refocus its strategy away from resisting NATO's drive and U.S. deployments and toward conflict prevention and conflict resolution.
The Russian government should use soft power to win back sympathy from the Georgian population in preparation for the end of Georgian President Saakashvili’s term in office in 2013.
While there is virtually no hope that the 2009 Armenian–Turkish Protocols will be ratified soon, both parties should take steps to rebuild confidence and affirm their faith in the process.
The tense relations between the Muslim world and the rest of the world remain one of the biggest problems in global politics today. Moving forward, both sides must work together to recognize the inevitability of conflict and seek avenues for peaceful mitigation.
Post-Soviet Russia has witnessed an expansion of religious freedom and a change in the relationship between religious entities and the state. Religious movements that had all but disappeared under the Soviet regime have been experiencing a revival.
Grave violence plagues the North Caucasus, which should be a key humanitarian concern for Europe. But the economic crisis will largely determine how much will be done to help the region.