The fall of the Berlin Wall, the defeat of the August coup attempt in Moscow, and the end of communism in the Soviet Union were great milestones of the late twentieth century and symbols of the new century to come. These events opened the door for the development of a market economy, democratization, and the rule of law in Eastern and Central Europe, and ended the Cold War and the nuclear confrontation. Twenty years after the end of communism, how has the global community—including Russia—changed and what changes are on the horizon?
Russia’s corruption is both the cause and the consequence of an ineffective political and state administration system. It not only makes modernization impossible; it also threatens the country’s very survival. A distinction needs to be made between the struggle against corruption itself and targeting corruption as a form of competition between groups within the elite. The latter never ceases within a corrupt system, but the former can succeed only with the help of outside forces—the Russian public as well as the international community.
Despite the nascent recovery, many experts believe that the reasons for Russia’s downturn persist, including state-led monopolies, dependence on natural resources, non-market means of regulation, the lack of clear rules of the game, and poor transparency. How will the crisis continue to affect the lives of Russians, and how effective is the government's response?
The 2012 Russian presidential election is already the key factor shaping the country’s political developments. Beyond simply choosing a new president, the election will set the political and economic model for the next decade, determining whether Russia modernizes or remains overly reliant on natural resources. Like a mirror, issues dominating the elections reflect the fears and aspirations of Russia’s ruling elite and citizens, both for the present and the future.
What is the role of science and technology in strengthening energy security in Russia and Eurasia? Particular attention is paid to energy initiatives in which Russia can act alongside the U.S. and Europe. In addition, the Center examines Arctic technologies, the changing nature of hydrocarbon exploration, extraction and transportation, nuclear energy, clean coal, and energy efficiency.
The U.S. sees Iran’s nuclear program as the biggest threat to security and insists on international sanctions. Iran argues that its program is exclusively peaceful and threatens to withdraw from the NPT if pressed. Will the international community pick up arms, or will it allow Teheran to achieve the full fuel cycle, under IAEA watch? That choice will determine regional and global security.
For decades, the North Korean nuclear problem has been at the center of Russian, American, and Chinese foreign policy. North Korea seeks to exchange its nuclear program for security guarantees and economic support. Washington will not move forward until North Korea’s program is dismantled. China and Russia are active moderators between the two. But the issue is not only how to escape the crisis, but how to lay a new foundation for peace on the Korean peninsula.
As Putin’s successor, Medvedev operates within the inherited, clannish framework of “overmanaged democracy”, while Putin retains significant influence, now as a prime minister. The emergence of a second power center creates further uncertainty in a political system that faces inevitable change, driven by the myriad of social and economic challenges the country faces. Of particular importance is the strengthening and modernization of Russia’s weakened institutions.
Political transformation, state building, the development of civil society, and international relations are reviewed in concert throughout the macroregion, whose borders stretch from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean and from the southern Urals to Xinjiang and which remains home to major conflicts of global concern. In recent years, these processes have been augmented by the issue of radical Islam, the roots of and prospects for which are at the center of analysis.
How stable are the new political systems in the region? Can these young states cope with the challenges of transition and modernization? Is there only one successful model, or is there also room for authoritarian-led economic growth, as in Russia and Belarus? How successful will the democratic projects be in the Baltic states, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova?
Further improvements in the U.S.-Russian relationship would serve the interests of both countries, including by strengthening of Russia’s standing in the world, and would lay the foundation for solutions to such problems as collective security, nuclear nonproliferation, terrorism, energy security, the Iranian nuclear question, and the stabilization of Afghanistan.
The emergence of the new states of the Caucasus has been strained by territorial disputes. Conflicts smolder in Chechnya, Abkhazia, and Nagorno-Karabakh. Terrorism and extremism have spread into the region from neighboring Middle East and Central Asia. Islam has emerged as a factor of public life. Caspian oil and its transit routes to the West have become the object of rivalry between major powers. How these challenges are met will determine the security outlook for Russia, Europe, and, in part, the United States.
The imprisonment of Yukos head Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his second trial reflect the strong-arm tendencies of Russian politics. What are the chances of a democratic reversal? How will the Khodorkovsky case develop, and what impact will it have on the country’s political life?
Browse commentary, analysis and event materials from previous issues the Center has addressed.
Absent a good education environment, there is little room for the Arab world’s youth to turn into responsible citizens who can consolidate and stimulate social transformation to bring about more prosperous and free societies.
An increasing trade deficit with China, coupled with Chinese purchases of large tracts of Latin American farmland, could cause strain between China and Latin American nations.
The obvious and often painful mismatch between aspiration and reality in European foreign policy has plagued discourse on European integration during the last decade.
As speculation increases that Iran is inching closer to acquiring nuclear weapons, rhetoric regarding war may just be an effort to strengthen diplomacy.
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