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To escape the analogy of a revolution, Vladimir Putin must rise above the rapacious elite, and to avoid being overthrown, he must replace it.
For the Russian economic and political system, as well as for the country’s foreign relations, the current economic crisis is an existential one. Russia will exit from it in a very different form from what it is today.
For over two decades, no one in the West felt the need for regulating Russia’s relations with NATO. The lesson of the Napoleonic wars about the need to integrate a former adversary—which was forgotten after WWI—has been forgotten again.
The crisis presents Putin with an opportunity to tighten his grip on business, to see who is loyal and who is not, to pick winners and losers, to decide who will receive state support and whose assets should be “redistributed”.
In 2014, Russia broke out of the post–Cold War order and openly challenged the U.S.-led international system. Moscow’s new course is laid down first and foremost by President Vladimir Putin, but it also reflects the rising power of Russian nationalism.
Despite the large number of bilateral agreements signed as a result of Putin’s visit to Delhi, there are many obstacles to an improved relationship with India that require pragmatic approaches from both sides.
U.S. foreign policy in a more difficult, intrusive world.
It appears that Vladimir Putin’s visit to India will not lead to a breakthrough in Russian-Indian relations. If nothing is done soon following his visit to materially upgrade the relationship, its stagnation will become qualitative, not just quantitative.
Russia and the United States have entered a period of severe confrontation. Caution, sober calculations, and strategic vision of possible international developments are necessary in the present circumstances.
By reactivating its policy on Pyongyang, Moscow is sending messages to Seoul, Tokyo, Washington, and Beijing, which should be properly understood.
Russia needs to use every opportunity to inform the Indian government and public about Moscow’s priorities in regional and global politics and about its views on all issues which are relevant to Indians.
The BRICS countries are establishing the New Development Bank to expand economic assistance to developing countries beyond that offered by the Bretton Woods institutions.
Washington and its allies should strategically continue patient diplomacy unless Iran resumes provocative nuclear activities.
The crisis in Ukraine has betrayed fault lines in the Visegrad Group. Unless Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic change course, the “golden age” of Central Europe may come to an end.
The shooting down of an Armenian helicopter on the ceasefire line of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone is the worst incident of its kind in over 20 years.
Ukraine is not a cause, but a symbol of the serious and deepening crisis between the United States with its allies and Russia. As this crisis may become a permanent state, it is time for permanent crisis management.
The situation in Russia’s Muslim community is generally stable. However, the economic crisis creates fertile soil for the growth of Islamic radicalism, for which the country should be prepared.
Russia, while a truly independent player, is not an equal of the world’s high and mighty. However, Putin has a chance to elevate Russia. He should use his immense political capital to embark on the hard path of modern nation-building.
Over a few months the Islamic State has asserted itself as the strongest—militarily and politically—extremist organization in the Middle East. Russia must develop a policy to deal with the Islamic State.
South Asia is more vulnerable to a possible nuclear conflict than any other region. It is necessary to take a number of urgent steps to stabilize relations between India and Pakistan and prevent a nuclear threat.
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