War and Peace in the Caucasus

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Inside the Explosive Case Against Armenia’s Ex-President

    The case against ex-president Robert Kocharyan has become the most explosive episode in Armenian politics since this past spring’s Velvet Revolution. It has unnerved Moscow, as well as Kocharyan’s allies in Yerevan, with the former fearing that Armenia is pivoting to the West and the latter accusing the Nikol Pashinyan government of political persecution. But the case against Kocharyan is neither geopolitical nor the beginning of a campaign of terror—it is all about the March 1 affair, Armenia’s Bloody Sunday.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    What to Expect from Armenia’s New Leader

    It’s hard to call Pashinyan left- or right-wing, pro-Western or pro-Russian. He has two images: one of a charismatic revolutionary, capable of getting people on the streets to rally behind him, and the other as a pragmatic politician ready to make compromises and form tactical unions.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Armenia’s Revolution and the Legacy of 1988

    The unexpected collapse of Armenia’s ruling regime is better understood if you study the story of Armenia’s break with the Soviet regime in 1988. The country has a legacy of peaceful protest, national solidarity, but is also trapped by a strong nationalist discourse.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    The Southern Vector: Russia’s Need to Upgrade Its Policy in the South Caucasus

    To ensure its national security, Russia needs a comprehensive strategy in the South Caucasus region.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Conflicting Realities in Russia and the EU’s Shared Neighborhood

    Precisely because the conflict with Georgia now has a lower profile than Ukraine, the EU and Russia might start exploring ways to minimize the risk of confrontation and even test approaches for accommodation. Using the provisions of the Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement signed with Georgia EU can underscore its commitment to human rights and propose technical solutions that would improve the lives of residents in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in terms of access to education, healthcare, and freedom of movement and trade.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    The Karabakh Conflict as “Project Minimum”

    Moscow has never pulled the strings in the Karabakh conflict, but it remains the most influential outside actor. A Karabakh peace process will remain “Project Minimum” for Russia, the United States, and France, unless its key actors, local and international, decide to rethink their strategic priorities.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Armenia’s “Both/And” Policy for Europe and Eurasia

    Four years ago, Armenia’s failure to sign the EU Association Agreement was an early indication of the impending Ukraine crisis. Now, an Association Agreement-lite has been signed with Brussels. While this doesn’t represent a normalization of relations between Russia and the EU in the post-Soviet space, it’s important symbolically. Rather than an “either/or” approach to integration, the EU and Russia are gradually moving in the “both/and” direction.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Russia and the West’s South Caucasus Dilemma

    Russia and the West have a choice in the South Caucasus. They can either treat the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia as being isolated from other conflicts—such as those in the Donbas and Transdniestria—or they can use it as an additional argument in their overall confrontation.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    What Does the Decline of Clans in the North Caucasus Mean for Moscow?

    Recent speculation that Russia wants to topple the “traditional” clan system in the North Caucasus misses the point: the clan system is in no way traditional, and it is collapsing on its own. The real question is whether the federal center will find other allies in the region when it falls.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Dagestan’s Main Problem Isn’t Clans. It’s the Russian System

    Dagestan’s outgoing leader was also once presented as a figure who would instill order in the republic and combat clan rule. Indeed, Ramazan Abdulatipov tried to reform the regional elite. But clan rule, nepotism, corruption, and the threat of terrorism are still there four years later. It has proved impossible to modernize Dagestan without changing the Russian system as a whole.

Carnegie Experts on
War and Peace in the Caucasus

  • expert thumbnail - Baunov
    Alexander Baunov
    Senior Fellow
    Editor in Chief of Carnegie.ru
    Moscow Center
    Baunov is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center and editor in chief of Carnegie.ru.
  • expert thumbnail - Trenin
    Dmitri Trenin
    Director
    Moscow Center
    Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, has been with the center since its inception. He also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.

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