One could only guess what Russia’s real goal in Ukraine is. However, sooner or later Moscow will need to deal with someone in Kyiv, and will need a political strategy to end the crisis.
Sunday’s events put Ukraine on the brink of civil war. However, there is still a chance to prevent the worst, but it can only be used when those calling political shots inside and outside Ukraine rise to their responsibility.
Japan makes judgment about Ukraine in the context of her balancing game among the United States, Russia, and China. However, if Moscow sends troops to Eastern Ukraine, the Japanese political class will unanimously support serious measures to stop Russia.
It is likely that Kyrgyzstan will become a member of the Customs Union. Moreover, Kyrgyzstan’s integration process with Russia was not substantially affected by the developments in Ukraine.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan takes the battle against the Gülen movement beyond the national borders, and it seems that his visit to Azerbaijan, to a large extent, was motivated by the omnipresence of Gülen followers whose activities in Azerbaijan are massive and successful.
The challenges New Delhi faces inside the country and along its borders do not allow it to fully support the Russian annexation of Crimea, since this would create a precedent that can be used against India’s own territorial integrity. However, India could not denounce Russia either, because it acted similarly four decades ago.
After the Russian annexation of Crimea, the Belarusian President Lukashenko starts creating a “besieged fortress” and mobilizing the Belarusians to defend their country from potential Russian aggression. Moreover, Kazakhstan’s President Nazarbayev may follow Lukashenko’s example. It is clear that the future Eurasian Union cannot be strong.
Moldova’s government wants association with the EU, but is committed to the “reunification of Moldova” by means of “re-integration” of Transnistria. The reality, however, is that Moldova can be made whole only if it decided to turn east rather than west.
For the U.S. public and its political establishment, Russia is back as an adversary. Having taken on U.S. power, the Russian state will need to be very smart—and very good—to withstand the confrontation.
Today’s world is again facing the civilizational choice which was recently expressed in the speeches of Putin and Obama representing two civilizations with starkly different norms.
The continuing crisis over Ukraine has significantly hardened Western official and media attitudes toward Russia. However, with Washington leading the charge and NATO back in the saddle, the European Union is taking a back seat.
The seizure of Crimea is Putin’s personal conquest, as well as a dramatic reinforcement of his regime of personal power. For now Putin has succeeded in halting Russia’s social and economic modernization and has pushed Russia to an anti-modernization course.
Cooperation among Arctic states is essential to reducing the potential for political, economic, or small military clashes. The fallout from the Crimea crisis, however, could spoil elements of Arctic cooperation.
Those who believe that the Kremlin will be satisfied with Crimea and will agree to return to a new “reset” do not understand the nature of the Russian personalized power and its logic that tries to prolong its life at the expense of breaking the rules and even destroying the world order.
Two weeks search for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane was an example of both impressive regional cooperation and discouraging limits of such cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.
Russia’s economic, political and strategic environment in the West is fast deteriorating. One obvious way to respond to this is to reach out to Asia and the Pacific.
The Mystery of Russian Strategy for Ukraine
Ukraine: Weekend Rendez-Vous With History
Japan Looks at Ukraine and Fears Czechoslovakia, 1948
Kyrgyzstan: When Change Confirms Continuity
Georgia in Ferment
Gülen: Top Issue in the Agenda of Erdoğan’s Visit to Azerbaijan
India The Abstainer
The “Besieged Fortress” Virus
Transnistria: A Gathering Storm
Russian-Western Confrontation: Prepare for a Long Haul
Will the Crimean Tatars Become Russia’s Headache?
Adrift on the Black Sea
Two Presidents, Two Epochs, Two Systems
Europe: The “Holiday From History” Is Over
Putin’s Crimean Conquest Pushes Russia to an Anti-Modernization Course
Despite Crimea, Western-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic Should Continue
Crimea and Karabakh
On the Western Narrative on the Post-Post Cold War Époque
MH370 Challenge for Asia-Pacific Security
Russia: Pivoting to Asia or Just to China?