In Crimea, Putin will face the financial burden which the annexation will incur. Crimea’s case may seem to be manageable at first, but the expenditure will absorb all money and Russia’s already dwindling investment will be brought to nil.
Most Crimeans probably do not realize it yet, but without a shot being fired and in the space of just a few days, Crimea has joined the list of European territories that live in the twilight zone of international sovereignty.
Russian troops in Crimea are necessary not simply to protect it from a possible invasion by the Ukrainian army, but rather to incorporate Crimea into Russia’s financial infrastructure as soon as possible.
The Crimea referendum, in which the people of the region have massively voted to join Russia, marks a watershed in Russia’s foreign policy: Russia has stopped walking backward and has made a step forward. As for Ukraine, it will be for the foreseeable future a geopolitical battleground.
The Ukrainian and Crimean crisis are a major challenge for Turkish diplomacy but there is no serious indication that Turkey will stand against Russia. The priority for the Turkish government now is to ensure it will survive the corruption scandals and upcoming elections.
As the new Ukrainian government is struggling to contain the crisis in Crimea, the broader picture should not be lost from sight. Comprehensive political reforms and an inclusive and transparent political process are needed to renew and strengthen political institutions and regain legitimacy.
If Vladimir Putin has a new doctrine of intervention, Moldova is vulnerable. But thus far both Chisinau and Transnistria have been quiet, while the crisis rages next door.
The secession of Scotland would alter the balance of power between the main member states of the European Union, while the secession of Crimea would have the same effect at the global level.
While a global crisis, provoked by the recent developments in Ukraine, has brought the world to the edge, the political and intellectual world has demonstrated how unprepared it is for the new challenges and how difficult it is to grasp the new reality.
The “Islamic factor” in the Crimean crisis has received relatively little attention so far. However, the complexities of Crimean ethnoreligious realities should not be ignored.
The EU is resolutely engaging with the CIS states trying to tie them closer to the Union and create a European sphere of influence. However, in Central Asia it failed to leave its political footprint and make a difference on the ground.
It is not clear whether “protection of compatriots” is a new foreign-policy goal Putin intends to apply elsewhere—or whether he is just using any weapon he can to undermine the new authorities in Kyiv. In any case, playing the “compatriot card” is a dangerous game.
Ukraine became the place where the open crisis of the post-Soviet model occurred. This means that the country may become only the first stage in the chain of future collapses. Also, with Russian invasion in Ukraine the entire international system that came into being after 1991 is starting to crumble.
The Kremlin’s intervention in Crimea and direct involvement in the destabilization of the southeast of Ukraine exemplifies Putin’s Doctrine. This concept is based on the premise that Russia can only exist as the center of the galaxy surrounded by the satellite-statelets.
The Ukrainian events develop rapidly with a great sense of alarm; it not only involves danger of terrorism in Moscow, but also entails a big risk for East Asia. The main question now is who would be ready to take charge of the situation.
The possibility of a Russian military operation in Ukraine that is not limited to Crimea is real. Russia and the West are on the verge a confrontation far worse than over Georgia in 2008.
The voices from India in world discussions about Ukraine are of particular importance due to long tradition of non-alignment policy of this country and its good relations with both USSR/Russia and the West.
On Crimea’s Annexation. How Long Will Putin’s “Judo Diplomacy” Keep Working?
Extreme Makeover: Ukraine Oligarch Edition
Welcome to the Twilight Zone, Crimea
The Day After: Is It Technically Difficult to Annex Crimea?
Crimea’s Choice
The End of Free Press in Russia
The Russian Intervention in Crimea: Erdogan’s Dilemma
Why It Is Not Only the Battle Over Crimea That Will Determine Ukraine’s Future
Watching Moldova
Scotland and Crimea: Debating the Costs and Benefits of Secession
Ukraine as a Challenge of Perception
Crimea’s Tatar Factor
No European Impact in Central Asia?
Playing the Compatriot Card
Ukraine: Law of Unintended Consequences Illustrated, Part II
Ukraine: Law of Unintended Consequences Illustrated
Before the Emotions Bring a New World War: Look Into the Real Situation in Ukraine
The Brink of War in Ukraine?
Ukrainian Crisis: Voices from India
Crimea Crisis: Three Lessons From the Caucasus