Carnegie Moscow Center
The Iran nuclear deal and the restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba are victories achieved through informal or semi-informal diplomacy. As for the Russian-American relations, this diplomacy successfully worked even during the Cold War—but not now.
A theory of “hybrid war” based on the events in Crimea and eastern Ukraine ignores both the chronology and cause-and-effect links between events on the ground.
Military-technical collaboration between India and Russia has been most productive in building India’s strategic naval capabilities. While India has a variety of defense partners, only Russia has provided it with a strategic dimension.
Among all the possible candidates for membership in the SCO, India and Pakistan seem the most ready for it. If they join the SCO in the near future, this will benefit not only these states, but also the organization itself.
The BRICS and the West are neither rivals nor partners. The BRICS isn’t challenging the West, but the West’s own growing weaknesses are empowering the BRICS.
Inordinate delays in executing joint aircraft production projects have meant that India and Russia have squandered their chances to become world leaders in this field.
Today, reaching out pro-actively to the non-West is the only realistic option for Moscow. It should view its role as an economic resource base, a diplomatic adviser, and a defense arsenal of the emerging community of the non-West.
The joint India-Russia missile project BrahMos has been the single most successful joint military-technical collaboration between the two countries, and it appears the prospects for its usage are just beginning. Both countries need to increase this kind of strategic collaboration.
Divisions exist among major nations about how to approach Putin, and his isolation is anything but watertight. At the same time, the Russians themselves are no less defiant of what they see as U.S. global domination.
Under totalitarian regimes, the state is the only force that shapes the condition of society. Vladimir Putin may not be there yet, but he certainly is moving in that direction.
Rather than thinking about some grand architecture for the future, all sides of the current Russian-Western conflict should step away from the brink.
Dialogue between Russia and the United States is needed to defuse tension and tone down irresponsible statements on both sides about nuclear weapons.
Not only Russia, but also the entire world might face a dilemma: Choosing between a very sinister authoritarian regime and the Islamic State.
Russia is unlikely to withdraw from the INF Treaty any time soon, because Moscow believes that the negative effects of a withdrawal would be greater than any potential benefits.
If China and Russia manage to coordinate the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt, the change will mean not only a more genuine partnership between Moscow and Beijing, but China’s arrival, with Russia’s support, as a truly Eurasian power.
The success of the Urumqi meeting between the representatives of the Afghan government and the Taliban, also attended by Chinese and Pakistanis, is doubtful. The role of Pakistan in the organization of the meeting is the most controversial issue.
Non-government organizations have become “undesirable” in Russia, along with Russian experts and specialists. In fact, they are not undesirable for Russia, which actually needs them very badly, but undesirable for the current regime.
Presidency of the BRICS will allow Moscow to position itself as a participant of an association that offers an alternative to the global world order, and the grouping’s summit in Ufa will give the Russian government an opportunity to present the country as a leader of the non-Western world.
The Ukraine crisis was not just about Ukraine, or even Europe. It was about the global order, which promises a long competition with a yet-unforeseen result.
Perhaps the most important document signed by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on May 8 in Moscow is the joint declaration on the unification of the Moscow-backed Eurasian Economic Union and the Chinese Silk Road Economic Belt.