Carnegie Moscow Center
Putin may yet find out what many others found out before him, that breaking a country is a lot easier than putting it back together.
If Putin follows through on his threat to invade Ukraine, the damage to Russia’s relations with the West will be deep and lasting.
The possibility of a Russian military operation in Ukraine that is not limited to Crimea is real. Russia and the West are on the verge a confrontation far worse than over Georgia in 2008.
The voices from India in world discussions about Ukraine are of particular importance due to long tradition of non-alignment policy of this country and its good relations with both USSR/Russia and the West.
Some kind of political crisis in Crimea looks almost inevitable. At the moment the priority has to be stop having a military one as well.
With all eyes on the simmering crisis in Crimea, the new provisional Ukrainian government in Kyiv is sending few, if any signs that it is seeking reconciliation.
It is not clear how long the uncertainty over Ukraine’s new course will last. But the challenges that the country is facing are more obvious.
Crimea is the most serious potential conflict in postrevolutionary Ukraine. The crisis could lead to a hot war in Ukraine and dramatically increase tensions between Russia and the West—no effort should be spared to avert this scenario.
The collapse of the Yanukovych regime in Ukraine became another posthumous chapter in the breakup of the Soviet Union. It will severely curtail Russia’s leadership ambitions in the post-Soviet space.
With signs of a stabler political climate and growing investments in Georgia facilitated by two big funds, it’s not out of the question that 2014 could see the return of the “Caucasian tiger.”
As more or less the last international player that can make a pitch to all of Ukraine, the EU will need to re-tool the Eastern Partnership to make a credible offer to all Ukrainian citizens.
The Western media’s focus on Russia has ignored the fact that it was Ukraine’s revolution, made in Ukraine by Ukrainians. But now Ukraine’s domestic politics is full of uncertainty.
The Ukrainian drama is far from over, and the international actors bear responsibility for its length and excruciatingly painful results.
Although Russia has failed to get at the Winter Olympics the one prize it particularly coveted, the ice hockey title, it managed to win a far more important victory—in ensuring that the Games, the athletes, and spectators were safe. However, making Russia safer remains a challenge.
Ukraine’s “February revolution” is sometimes described as a major blow to Russia and to President Vladimir Putin, personally. In fact, it may be a blessing in disguise for both.
Russia has far less influence in Ukraine than is commonly appreciated. Moscow’s best option is to stand back and wait, while quietly favoring decentralization in Ukraine.
The compromise between Yanukovych and the leaders of the opposition is a long-overdue step back from a disaster, but much remains unclear. Ukraine will face a set of grim prospects, the worst of which is that the country is running out of money.
Today, many countries have to fight against terrorist organizations, which have roots in the Soviet war in Afghanistan. However, this lesson is still unlearned: in Syria, fighters under Islamic flags have gained support of several countries, but this support will recoil upon the supporters’ own heads.
Without clear knowledge of what role radical and paramilitary groups, or Yanukovych loyalists, played in touching off this past week’s violence, all eyes must be on the people with the guns, not the politicians.
As Ukraine is teetering on the brink of a civil war, the West and Russia have found themselves on the brink of new confrontation. Instead, they should cooperate on Ukraine and push the Ukrainian sides toward stopping violence.