Struggle for Ukraine


Putin’s Special Ops Mindset: What Next for Russia and Ukraine?

The recognition of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics is a chance for Russia to climb down from the peak of escalation with a concrete result, because retreating empty-handed would have been a ruinous outcome for the Kremlin’s prestige.

As Ukraine Escalation Peaks, What’s the Logic on Both Sides?

Regardless of its desire to contain or punish Russia, the West will find it much easier to deal with a Russia that almost invaded Ukraine than a Russia that actually did so, and the hawks in Russia know this.

Ukraine’s President Beset on All Sides Amid Fears of Russian Attack

Yet again, Zelensky is faced with a crisis even worse than all the previous ones. Every report of another Russian plan to invade Ukraine is a blow to its economy, weakening the hryvnia, pushing up interest rates, and sowing panic among the public.

The West Has Responded to Russia’s Ultimatum. Is It Enough?

In its negotiations with the West, Russia is behaving not like a country preparing to wage war, but like a country that, if necessary, can afford to do so.

What Would a War With Ukraine Mean for Ordinary Russians?

It seems clear that any war would destroy the still relevant Putinist model of the state as stable and successful. Instead of mobilizing public opinion ahead of the 2024 presidential election, it would have the opposite effect.

Are We On the Brink of War? An Interview With Dmitri Trenin

Following Moscow’s demands for security guarantees from the United States and NATO, Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin was interviewed by Kommersant’s Elena Chernenko about Russia’s future steps with regard to Ukraine and the West.

How Do Russians Feel About a War With Ukraine?

Militarization stopped being a way to mobilize Russians in support of the government in 2018. Russians—in particular young people—don’t want war.

Will Putin Get What He Wants on Ukraine?

For now, Biden is the leader who prevented a war, but that’s not to say that the summit will be followed by a rapid de-escalation: not until Moscow sees new steps being taken by Washington on Ukraine. First and foremost, that means progress on implementing the Minsk agreements.

Tuning Out Putin on Ukraine is Easy – and Self-Defeating

Putin wants Biden to finally face up to an unpleasant dilemma. The message is simple: Washington needs to brace itself for its partner Ukraine to be soundly defeated militarily in what would be an especially humiliating re-run of recent events in Afghanistan. Or it can back down and reach a compromise with Moscow over Ukraine.

Are Russia and Ukraine Once Again on the Brink of War?

Russia’s military preparations and other actions signal that Moscow has recognized the danger of coexisting with a fortified area on its border, but doesn’t yet know what to do about it.
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