Energy Security

Australia’s climate change policy has a lot in common with Russia’s. Is this enough for two countries, neither of whose climate plans are particularly ambitious, to become allies in international climate negotiations?

Russian officialdom is increasingly vocal about climate change, yet Russia continues to be hindered in its attempts to promote a different image of the country in this area—not only to foreign observers but also to domestic stakeholders, who are skeptical of Moscow’s promises and whose own efforts are erased in Russian messaging abroad.

The development of the Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 projects indicates that China has been and will remain Russia’s main foreign partner in Far North megaprojects for the foreseeable future. At the same time, Moscow is making a conscious effort to be less dependent on its partnership with Beijing.

Russia has a unique chance to extend existing long-term contracts with Europe for both pipeline natural gas and LNG—and to agree new ones. Moscow’s export strategy, however, must be more flexible, more open, and accompanied by more friendly rhetoric if it is to seize the opportunity.

Is the German regulator’s suspension of the certification process for Nord Stream 2 technical, or political? Why isn’t Gazprom cashing in while prices are so high, by sending additional gas to Europe? How does the Russian gas giant plan to deal with the global green energy transition?

Russia, it appears, wants to advance its own ecological agenda, but is not prepared to accept anyone else’s objectives.

Russia is certainly now taking climate-related issues seriously, but even though a latecomer in embracing the climate change agenda, it will not simply accept the West’s or the EU’s lead. Rather, it will act in accordance with its national interests.

Russia managed to formulate three climate principles ahead of COP26 that its delegation is promoting in Glasgow and, most likely, will continue to long after the summit ends.

The Moldovan crisis has demonstrated that Gazprom’s price will not be higher than the price set by the European hubs, which makes Gazprom a supplier like any other, and may be lower, which could make Gazprom a preferred supplier in countries with weaker economies.

The gas crisis could be a moment of truth for Moldova, which has an opportunity to take energy security more seriously, root out sectoral corruption, implement energy efficiency projects, build capacity to operate on the European gas market, and enhance cooperation with Ukraine. Achieving all this would not exclude Russia, but it would make energy a market issue, rather than a geopolitical one.