Key Conclusions:

  • Every revolution has its own peculiar causes. We should not exaggerate the possibility that the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya will set off a chain reaction throughout the Arab world or the wider Muslim world.
  • The activeness many expected to see from Islamic radicals has not been forthcoming so far.
  • The Arab governments in Algeria, Jordan, Morocco, Yemen and Oman have correctly judged the situation and agreed to concessions and even dialogue with the opposition as a way of lowering tensions.
  • We should not exaggerate the influence of these recent events on the Middle East conflict, because no matter what kind of government emerges in Egypt, it will concentrate its attention above all on domestic issues.
  • Authoritarian regimes in Central Asia are using the events in North Africa, especially in Libya, as an added argument in favor of a firm hand guaranteeing stable government in their countries.