Carnegie Moscow Center
Russia has never received so much attention from the West, but perhaps for all the wrong reasons. Overshadowed by allegations of interference in Western democracies, is the story of Russia’s own social and political awakening.
The conflict between the United States and Russia is a conflict between dominance and leadership, as far the U.S. is concerned, and Russia’s yearning for a global oligarchy.
The increase of Russian supplies and presence in support of the Bashar al-Assad’s regime is part of the Russian plan to start negotiations on the ground to resolve the Syrian crisis.
To the Kremlin, Assad is not the source of the problem in Syria—he is actually the way to solve it.
Once a nuclear deal is in place, the United States must focus on holding Tehran accountable.
A Russian attack on NATO’s eastern member states was never likely. At the same time, the threat of escalation in eastern Ukraine and the potential for more direct Russian and NATO involvement in the fighting there is a clear and present danger.
Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia has high value in the wake of the Ukraine crisis and the West’s response.
The rising relationship between China and Russia is based both on a common resentment toward Washington’s world dominance as well as on shared interests.
The confrontation between Russia and the United States that the world experiences today potentially could even be more dangerous than the Cold War, because each side believes that it has a monopoly on truth.
With the international investigation of the Malaysian plane crash yet to begin in earnest, the West will base its understanding on evidence supplied mainly by the United States and Russia will see Western actions as punishment not for shooting down the plane, but rather for Moscow’s position on Ukraine.
All of Putin’s actions, such as annexation of Crimea, trying to suffocate Ukraine, and trying to contain the United States and West in general, are a response to his domestic agenda. To survive, Putin wants to return to the old militaristic Russia and to become a war president.
Vladimir Putin’s policy is to do what he sees right, regardless of what others think about it. He is ready for sanctions and to accept the costs.
From the perspective of Putin and his associates, Ukraine is a red line and the West, in the form of NATO, was crossing it.
A second Cold War is emerging because of the mistakes that were made by both Russia and the West at the end of the first Cold War and during the inter-Cold War period.
It seems unlikely that Russian armed forces will move beyond the Crimean peninsula. The softer and more conciliatory tone taken by Putin could be a result of the determination of the United States and Europe to take action against Russia.
Putin interprets the victory of the Maidan in Ukraine as a victory of anti-Russian and pro-Western forces. He is very concerned about the possibility of having an anti-Russian state right on the Russian border.
The crisis in Crimea is the most dangerous moment since the end of the Cold War, with the risk of not only an escalation of tension between Ukraine and Russia, but also between Russia and NATO.
The situation in Ukraine is very unstable and dangerous, and Moscow's support of the delayed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and non-recognition of the new authorities in Kyiv only adds to the tension.
Russia and the EU are trying to pull Ukraine into their orbit rather than cooperating on what would be best for the country.
Moscow needs to play its hands wisely and avoid supporting the separatist movement in Ukraine, which could give Kyiv a pretext to send in troops to restore constitutional order.