Carnegie Moscow Center
Vladimir Putin’s first visit outside the former Soviet Union since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis is to China. The vector of Russian foreign policy has changed dramatically, and Russia has been seeking ways to strengthen ties with leading non-Western powers.
Since the 1990s, warnings from Russian liberals that Western pressure would push Russia toward China have failed to materialize. Now, however, faced with U.S.-led geopolitical pressure in Eastern Europe and East Asia, Russia and China are likely to cooperate more closely.
Putin’s travel to China should demonstrate that Russia is not alone, and, no doubt, this visit will be a success. However, China can call the shots in the upcoming gas deal. If a deal is concluded on favorable terms, this will signal a big step toward securing the strategic partnership between the two countries.
If the Kremlin allies with China too closely, it will not only estrange Russia from most of Asian countries, but also may provoke China’s appetite to gobble the newly-born child of Russia, the Eurasian Union.
Russia’s economic, political and strategic environment in the West is fast deteriorating. One obvious way to respond to this is to reach out to Asia and the Pacific.
The absence of several Western leaders and the presence of Asian luminaries at the opening ceremony of the Sochi Olympics highlights the rebalancing of Moscow’s foreign policy toward Asia-Pacific.
Xi Jinping’s style of leadership, different from that of his predecessors, may have deep implications for Chinese decision-making and the country’s future. If Xi’s bold reform agenda succeeds by 2020, the world will see China on track to increase its role as a global powerhouse.