Carnegie Moscow Center
In the coming months, Washington will need to walk a fine line to maintain pressure on Iran while trying to prevent the nuclear crisis from escalating out of control.
The events of the Arab Spring surprised both politicians and experts and while the region’s future is not yet clear, a number of risky scenarios could unfold.
The International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran stops short of saying Tehran masterminded a secret program to possess atomic arms and it made the outlook for a negotiated solution to the Iran crisis less likely.
There is space both for economic cooperation and competition among the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member countries, all of which could benefit from more trade and investment.
Russians should not expect modernization to be initiated from the top. Nor can a modern economy develop in Russia without reforming its political institutions, such as elections, the courts, and the law enforcement agencies.
The United States should stop emphasizing talks with the Quetta shura and the Haqqani network as the solution to Afghanistan’s problems. The insurgency has virtually no incentive to negotiate when its adversaries are headed for the exit.
Vladimir Putin’s plans to create an economically integrated Eurasian Union could give Russia an opportunity to become a real regional leader, so long as Eurasian economic is voluntary and Moscow’s partners do not see the process as an attempt at political domination.
By holding largely peaceful elections just ten months after the fall of its long-time dictator, the country credited with sparking the waves of protest that swept the Arab world is serving as an example to the rest of the region.
A settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is unlikely in the near term; instead, the world is likely to see, at best, conflict management rather than conflict resolution in the near future.
Russia is no longer an empire, but it is not yet a nation-state either. To be seen as a great power in the twenty-first century, it has to reform its institutions and economy and become a great country.