China’s new isolation has created plenty of difficulties in Sino-Russian ties, but its influence on strategic relations should not be exaggerated: the problems that have arisen can hardly be described as a serious crisis.
The pandemic has failed to bring geopolitical rivals together, but has it created new divisions, or merely amplified existing disagreements? And have any lessons been learned for dealing with other global challenges, like climate change?
When the shock from the pandemic wears off, post-COVID societies will have to search for new mechanisms to curb the desire of the authorities for total digital control.
Increased coronavirus infection rates among Russian churchgoers could seriously damage attitudes toward Orthodoxy for a long time. The state has also seen for itself that the church is unable to deal with its own flock.
In trying to shirk responsibility for the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, the Russian leadership is destroying the loyal majority it spent years building.
The inflow of coronavirus cases entering China from Russia won’t ruin the two countries’ flourishing relationship based on pragmatic interests. The Chinese are more disappointed in the anti-China rhetoric coming from the White House than in Russia’s inability to swiftly combat the coronavirus outbreak.
To avoid becoming part of a Sino-centric power bloc and maintain international equilibrium, which is critically important to Russia’s status and self-image, Moscow must reduce its dependence on China by fostering its relations with other large economic and financial players: primarily European countries, India, and Japan.
The longer-term consequences of the coronavirus will include the further intensification of U.S.-Chinese rivalry, and the emerging Sino-American bipolarity. Russia’s top priority should be to carefully maintain equilibrium—though not equidistance—between the United States and China.
