Hybrid War: Russia vs. the West

23.02.2022

Putin’s Special Ops Mindset: What Next for Russia and Ukraine?

The recognition of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics is a chance for Russia to climb down from the peak of escalation with a concrete result, because retreating empty-handed would have been a ruinous outcome for the Kremlin’s prestige.
18.02.2022

Can Russia Be Trusted at Negotiation Tables?

What do Russia’s divergent approaches—mediation versus militarization—say about the prospects of stability in Eurasia at such turbulent times?
15.02.2022

Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space

The geopolitical retreat that Russia began three decades ago has ended, and a new policy of selective expansion based on Russia’s national interests has commenced.
11.02.2022

Ukraine, NATO, and Putin’s Self-Made Predicament

Putin could have gotten out of this trap, had the Russian side positively evaluated the limited Western concessions that are on the table: arms control of medium-range weapons systems, as well as confidence-building, transparency, and verification measures in the NATO-Russia borderlands, and measures of crisis communication.
3.02.2022

How War Would Change Russia

A new spiral of international escalation would rapidly accelerate and entrench the repressive trends that have been in ascendancy in Russian public life in recent years. Any dissatisfaction will be crushed with redoubled strength, including when it emerges within the in-system opposition.
1.02.2022

The West Has Responded to Russia’s Ultimatum. Is It Enough?

In its negotiations with the West, Russia is behaving not like a country preparing to wage war, but like a country that, if necessary, can afford to do so.
29.01.2022

Are We On the Brink of War? An Interview With Dmitri Trenin

Following Moscow’s demands for security guarantees from the United States and NATO, Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin was interviewed by Kommersant’s Elena Chernenko about Russia’s future steps with regard to Ukraine and the West.
25.01.2022

Is There a Way Out of the Russia-NATO Talks Impasse?

If Moscow believes that the main security threat it faces is NATO military infrastructure moving closer to Russia’s western borders, it would make sense to focus on the infrastructure itself rather than the theoretical possibility of NATO expansion.
20.01.2022

What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West Revealed

Moscow’s demands of the United States and NATO are in fact the strategic goals of Russian policy in Europe. If Russia cannot achieve them by diplomatic means, it will resort to other methods.
23.12.2021

Germany’s Russia Test

The new Berlin government is in a difficult spot when it comes to dealing with Russia.
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