New Eastern Europe

9.07.2021

Will Tough New Sanctions Change the Course of Events in Belarus?

If Moscow and the West manage to de-escalate their confrontation, Lukashenko’s main currency—his demonstrative anti-Western stance—will be devalued in the eyes of the Kremlin.
4.06.2021

Podcast: Where Will the Crackdown in Belarus End?

“Repression is spreading like gas in a room: as long as there’s space there, it’s going to expand.” What do the latest developments in Belarus mean for the country’s future?
27.05.2021

Going Global: Forced Landing Makes Lukashenko an International Problem

Russia is the only country that can truly influence the behavior of the Belarusian regime, so it’s only a matter of time before Western pressure is transferred from Minsk to Moscow.
21.05.2021

Belarusian Media Onslaught Leaves Lukashenko With No Way Out

The Belarusian regime has backed itself into a corner, and is now scared to ease up the pressure, fearing that if angry people are given more freedom, there could be a repetition of last August’s sweeping protests.
12.05.2021

Why Fears of a Russia-Belarus Merger Never Come True

Belarus’s weakened position has not altered its traditional interests—or Minsk’s readiness to defend them. This is becoming increasingly obvious as the Belarusian regime regains control over the situation at home.
20.04.2021

Events in Czechia and Belarus Cement Eastern Europe’s New Divide

With the weekend’s developments in the Czech Republic and Belarus, the new border between Russia and the West is calcifying, eliminating not only movement from one side to the other, but also the freedom not to choose a side.
15.04.2021

What’s Behind the Refreeze in U.S.-Belarus Relations?

There are tough times ahead for U.S.-Belarusian relations. Reimposing sanctions will lead to a new stage of the diplomatic crisis and a further toughening of rhetoric.
16.02.2021

Is Lukashenko Really Ready to Reform Belarus?

Moscow faces the question of how to respond to procrastination over reform in Belarus. On the one hand, it might seem that the crisis there has passed, leaving no leverage over Lukashenko. On the other hand, he is going to need more money.
21.01.2021

Can Belarus Survive Without a Multi-Vector Foreign Policy?

Lukashenko’s post-August turn away from the West and toward Russia is no guarantee that Belarus will not return to a multi-vector foreign policy sometime soon.
13.01.2021

The Sorry State of Baltic-Russian Relations

For the Baltic states, a good Russia policy is one that creates distance between them and their neighbor to the east while maintaining some ties with it. Yet the few areas of cooperation that remain could easily become casualties of political battles.
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