Strong Japanese-Russian relations are economically beneficial and a strategic counterbalance against China’s influence. But the Ukraine crisis and Japan’s U.S. loyalties could have damaging effects.
For the U.S. public and its political establishment, Russia is back as an adversary. Having taken on U.S. power, the Russian state will need to be very smart—and very good—to withstand the confrontation.
Today’s world is again facing the civilizational choice which was recently expressed in the speeches of Putin and Obama representing two civilizations with starkly different norms.
The continuing crisis over Ukraine has significantly hardened Western official and media attitudes toward Russia. However, with Washington leading the charge and NATO back in the saddle, the European Union is taking a back seat.
Cooperation among Arctic states is essential to reducing the potential for political, economic, or small military clashes. The fallout from the Crimea crisis, however, could spoil elements of Arctic cooperation.
Those who believe that the Kremlin will be satisfied with Crimea and will agree to return to a new “reset” do not understand the nature of the Russian personalized power and its logic that tries to prolong its life at the expense of breaking the rules and even destroying the world order.
Russia’s economic, political and strategic environment in the West is fast deteriorating. One obvious way to respond to this is to reach out to Asia and the Pacific.
The Crimea referendum, in which the people of the region have massively voted to join Russia, marks a watershed in Russia’s foreign policy: Russia has stopped walking backward and has made a step forward. As for Ukraine, it will be for the foreseeable future a geopolitical battleground.
While a global crisis, provoked by the recent developments in Ukraine, has brought the world to the edge, the political and intellectual world has demonstrated how unprepared it is for the new challenges and how difficult it is to grasp the new reality.
The possibility of a Russian military operation in Ukraine that is not limited to Crimea is real. Russia and the West are on the verge a confrontation far worse than over Georgia in 2008.
