War and Peace in the Caucasus


The Karabakh Truce Under Threat

A worsening pattern of violence on the Karabakh ceasefire line increases the danger of a war by miscalculation in 2015.

Sources of Israel’s Policy in the Caucasus

  • Maxim Suchkov
Israel’s interests in the Caucasus have three principal dimensions: strategically, as a means of encircling Iran; in the mid-term, as a zone of energy supplies; and in a short-term, as a market for selling high tech arms and ammunition.

Prospects for Turkey’s New “Armenia Opening” and Russia’s Concerns

  • Pavel Shlykov
Recently the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations has drawn the attention of both Turkish and world media. However, current activities around the “Armenian question” failed to create solid ground for real compromise between the two states.

Armenia: Aftermath of a Massacre

The political fallout of the horrible murders in Gyumri will not result in a strategic re-orientation by Armenia away from Russia. However, it will undermine public support for Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and his government.

Ramzan Kadyrov as a Federal-Level Politician

Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic in the North Caucasus, is now firmly entrenched in Russian politics at the federal-level, and it appears that he is there to stay, because Putin and Kadyrov really need each other.

Swallowing South Ossetia

Russia and South Ossetia are about to sign a “Treaty of Alliance and Integration.” However, normalization of relations with Georgia is impossible as long as Moscow continues to strengthen its grip on South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Looking Back on 2014 (Part II)

2014 was a year of crisis. Ebola, ISIS, and Donbas are now part of the global lexicon. Eurasia Outlook experts weigh in on how crises on Russia’s periphery affected the country, and what these developments mean for Moscow in 2015.

Regime Change Divides East and West

In the new ideological cleavage that has opened up between Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Western countries, one idea divides them like no other: the meaning of regime change.

The Grozny Attack—What’s Next?

The terrorist attack that shook Grozny during the night of December 4 has put in question the authorities’ ability to control the situation in the North Caucasus, even in the seemingly stable Chechen Republic.

The Grozny Attacks and Russia’s Relationship with the West

  • Maxim Suchkov
One of the most important consequences of the dramatic violence in Grozny may be the impact it has on Russia-Western relations. Amidst a stand-off with the West over Ukraine, the Kremlin may interpret this terrorist acts as “Western attempts to fuel instability inside Russia.”
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