The Ukrainian and Crimean crisis are a major challenge for Turkish diplomacy but there is no serious indication that Turkey will stand against Russia. The priority for the Turkish government now is to ensure it will survive the corruption scandals and upcoming elections.
The EU is resolutely engaging with the CIS states trying to tie them closer to the Union and create a European sphere of influence. However, in Central Asia it failed to leave its political footprint and make a difference on the ground.
Today, many countries have to fight against terrorist organizations, which have roots in the Soviet war in Afghanistan. However, this lesson is still unlearned: in Syria, fighters under Islamic flags have gained support of several countries, but this support will recoil upon the supporters’ own heads.
The second round of negotiations between the Syrian opposition and the government failed. As of now, the resolution of the conflict almost entirely depends on the position adopted by the external actors, whose relations, however, are now getting more complicated.
Twenty-five years after the Soviet pullout from Afghanistan, the Russians watch the U.S.-led coalition withdraws from this country and worry about regional stability, security, and drugs production and trade. To deal effectively with these concerns, Russia should focus not so much on Afghanistan as on its Central Asian neighbors.
The 50th Munich Security Conference marked the charting of a course toward Berlin’s more robust engagement in the world, including with military means. At the same time, the conference was overshadowed by the unfolding crisis in Ukraine.
The slump of interest in South Asia in the West is a positive development, because it makes clearer which countries are the real partners of Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan. Also, if left to themselves these three countries will get a chance to build their relations without external pressure.
Pakistan is not an important Russian trading partner in South Asia. However, with Eurasian integration involving Central Asia and traditional Russian-Indian economic ties revived, there is no sense for Pakistan to remain in a limbo.
In 2013 Russia’s foreign policy has finally assumed a new quality, something which will probably last. This foreign policy makes Russia much more of an international player than ever before in the last quarter-century.
