Carnegie Moscow Center
It would be better for Russia to reach an agreement with the West on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, coupled with an assurance of its permanent neutrality and a simultaneous accession by Ukraine to the Association Agreement with the EU and to the Russia-led Customs Union.
Japan makes judgment about Ukraine in the context of her balancing game among the United States, Russia, and China. However, if Moscow sends troops to Eastern Ukraine, the Japanese political class will unanimously support serious measures to stop Russia.
In Crimea, Putin will face the financial burden which the annexation will incur. Crimea’s case may seem to be manageable at first, but the expenditure will absorb all money and Russia’s already dwindling investment will be brought to nil.
The Ukrainian events develop rapidly with a great sense of alarm; it not only involves danger of terrorism in Moscow, but also entails a big risk for East Asia. The main question now is who would be ready to take charge of the situation.
The recent developments in Asia-Pacific indicate a necessity to start serious talks for “stock-taking” of the military forces in the region. Also, Russia’s active involvement in regional security affairs is needed.
The Eurasian Economic Union had start negotiations with the EU on specific ways to liberalize mutual economic transactions without compromising its statehood. The forthcoming EU-Russia Summit is an opportune venue to launch such an idea.
Every country in Eurasia has to dance with the United States, politically, economically, militarily, and culturally. A recovery of the U.S. economy would mean that friendly relations with it will pay off and that an unnecessary confrontation will not.
Despite the diplomatic victories of Vladimir Putin, the economic stagnation in Russia is a far deeper and long-term factor.
The growth of the Chinese economy has been remarkable, but it was largely sustained by a phenomenal inflow of foreign capital and forced construction of infrastructure. Now fossilized in state capitalism, China may forfeit a mechanism for autonomous growth.
Russia may face a danger of becoming a “super Finland,” neutralized and marginalized between the NATO and China. To avoid this, Russia can strengthen its ties with the East-Asian countries.