Carnegie Moscow Center
With the start of the military intervention in Syria in 2015, and the U.S.-Russian diplomatic effort that accompanied it, the Middle East has become a key testing ground for Russia’s attempt to return to the global stage.
By intensifying its current activities in the Middle East, the Kremlin is pursuing three goals: economic, political, and security.
Vladimir Putin’s announcement of Russia’s withdrawal from Syria is another cynical move by the Kremlin to retain control over the situation.
The 2016 elections to the Iranian parliament and Assembly of Expert definitely brought, at least, nominal changes in the political landscape of the country. Yet, the potential impact of these changes on the future development of the country will probably be limited.
Whether Russia’s foreign policy achieves its objectives depends primarily on the success or failure of the country’s economic relaunch.
Speaking in Munich, Medvedev diagnosed an ongoing slide into a new Cold War and, accordingly, an increase of dangers—both from a potential direct clash between Russia and the United States/NATO and from their inability to cooperate to fight extremism.
In the Middle East, it is the regional actors that are at the forefront. They are calling the shots—literally. And they are yet to learn the fine art of co-operation alongside confrontation.
The Saudi-Iranian conflict will compel Moscow to make a hard choice: stand with its Iranian partner or step aside and remain ostensibly neutral.
The main challenge of foreign policy expertise both in Russia and in the United States is to understand where the other country is coming from. The challenge to the U.S. is to be able to go beyond the ideological stereotypes. For the Russians, there is a clear need to do more serious research on the United States.
The political rupture between Russia and Turkey is unlikely to heal as long as Putin and Erdogan are in power. The conflict between the two countries may not have killed the resurgent diplomatic push to end the Syrian crisis, but it has definitely complicated it.