Carnegie Moscow Center
No issue in the area of European military security is more important or more vexed than that of nonstrategic nuclear weapons.
No issue is more urgent or central to achieving progress toward the goal of creating an inclusive Euro-Atlantic Security Community than making European missile defense a joint project of the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and Russia.
It is unlikely that nuclear weapons proliferation in South Asia will lead to a deliberate outbreak of large-scale war, but a catastrophic conflict could occur even though neither the Indians nor the Pakistanis intend to start a nuclear war.
The next round of U.S.- Russia arms control presents some truly daunting challenges but there is much that the Obama administration could do in the remainder of its first term to lay the groundwork for another treaty while reducing nuclear risks.
Enormous societal and political shifts 20 years ago opened prospects for a new, united Europe. Despite Russia’s role in this peaceful departure from totalitarianism, the country’s course in the subsequent two decades was not so straightforward. While the demolition of the Berlin Wall is no guarantee of success, democratic transformations are a necessary precondition.
As NATO debates its future nuclear policy, it should focus on concrete measures to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent in the medium term and avoid abstract debates over complete disarmament or the need to keep nuclear weapons indefinitely.
While nuclear arms control is enjoying a renaissance of late, whether that momentum dissipates or leads to further agreements will require a painstaking effort by U.S. and Russian diplomats and experts to move past Cold War prejudices and the mistakes and misunderstandings of the post-Cold War era.
As U.S. policy seeks to create the conditions that would allow for deep reductions in nuclear arsenals, the United States and Russia can undertake a practical approach to their stockpiles to 500 nuclear warheads each and those of other nuclear-armed states to no more than about half that number.
Although Russia, the United States, and American allies have been loath to downsize their nuclear arsenals, deep reductions would not undermine a nation’s security since arsenal size has little bearing on effectiveness of deterrence.
While the United States has expressed its desire to enhance strategic stability with China, there needs to be a better understanding of how China perceives America’s nuclear posture.