Carnegie Moscow Center
As President Putin approaches his fourth term, his personal power is diminishing. In the recent corruption case against Minister Ulyukayev, the licensing of European University, and lawsuits against Sistema Financial Corporation, Putin has been either unwilling or unable to interfere. With the president off to the sidelines, there are signs that Russia’s “night rulers” are expanding their power.
Ksenia Sobchak’s run for the Russian presidency is not meant to siphon votes away from Alexei Navalny. The Kremlin’s aim is to create a pseudo-opposition, which will channel the discontents of the liberal urban electorate.
Time is on Navalny’s side. If he doesn’t commit a blunder that disenchants potential voters, and if the authorities don’t take the brute force approach of locking him away for a number of years, he could emerge as a key opposition figure between 2018 and 2024.
The possibility of TV anchor Ksenia Sobchak as a presidential candidate has morphed from the dream of one of Vedomosti’s Kremlin sources into a political fact and a model for all of Russian politics. It demonstrates the strategy and working style of the president’s administration and of Alexei Navalny, as well as the demand for any candidate other than Vladimir Putin.
The 2018 Russian presidential election will be the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s presumed final act as he seeks to ascend to the pantheon of Russia’s great historical figures. But as Putin loses interest in some of the more down-to-earth details of government, the Kremlin is testing new models of technocratic rule in order to sustain the regime.
In the absence of a real political contest, Russia’s 2018 presidential election will be more or less a referendum on public confidence in Putin.
There is no question surrounding the outcome of the 2018 Russian presidential election. However, the election campaign will prove interesting nonetheless. Incumbent Vladimir Putin’s platform remains a mystery, while the Kremlin is preparing to transfer power to the next generation and has already started to replace the political elite. Meanwhile, a group of eclectic candidates, including controversial television personality Ksenia Sobchak, populist blogger Alexei Navalny, and little-known communist businessman Pavel Grudinin have officially and unofficially joined the race.
As campaign season gains momentum, the Carnegie Moscow Center presents a series of publications about the 2018 presidential election to shed light on what is likely the last cycle with Putin officially in the mix.