Carnegie Moscow Center
The Ukraine crisis was not just about Ukraine, or even Europe. It was about the global order, which promises a long competition with a yet-unforeseen result.
Ukrainian society—particularly sectors that pushed for greater accountability and transparency during the EuroMaidan Revolution—and Western governments, particularly the United States, are pushing Poroshenko to rein in the oligarchs.
The conflict in Ukraine is anything but frozen. The dynamics of this conflict are driven as much by Ukrainian domestic affairs and local commanders’ decisions in the conflict zone as they are by any Cold War-style stand-off between East and West.
Old totalitarian practices can reemerge with new symbols, from new directions. And a struggle against the symbols of past unfreedom isn’t enough to protect against a lack of liberty in its latest incarnation.
There is no doubt that Nursultan Nazarbayev will win Kazakhstan’s early presidential elections. He will stay in power for an indefinite number of years to come, and the country will implement its planned reforms under his patronage.
The most pressing threat to Kazakhstan’s stability may turn out to be Nazarbayev himself. He is an elderly man who also reportedly suffers from cancer and he has no clear successor.
The solemn day of April 24 is approaching, when Armenians will mark the centenary of the tragedy that befell their nation in 1915, known as the Armenian Genocide.
The tensions in Russian-Western relations will not lead to a direct collision between Russia and NATO. The current surge of mutual psychosis has no relation to the military security.
Vladimir Putin’s decision to lift a ban on the exports of the S-300 air defense missile system to Iran has caused shockwaves in the West and Israel. However, the Kremlin’s move was quite predictable with a rather clearly discernible logic behind it.
The fact that the process of prisoner exchanges is still incomplete after months of fits and starts volumes about the messiness of the situation in eastern Ukraine.