Carnegie Moscow Center
The Arab Spring has more in common with events in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s than Central and Eastern Europe in 1989. The impact of events in the Middle East for states outside the region will depend on the legitimacy and adaptability of their regimes.
The Arab Spring is likely to have little to no impact on the political situation in the countries of Central Asia and may even serve the governments there as a cautionary warning to their citizens against social upheaval and turmoil.
The major social and economic problems that sparked the Arab Spring have not been addressed, making it likely that there will be a second round of unrest that could bring about a surge in the power of Islamic radicals or the establishment of new authoritarian regimes.
In his speech, President Obama laid out a less ambitious approach to the war in Afghanistan that abandons the long-term goals of nation building in favor of improved intelligence, special forces, drone attacks, and a smaller footprint in country.
The international community should focus on pressing the Kyrgyz government to respect the basic human rights of all their citizens and emphasize the importance of equality and accountability before the law.
Russia and the Central Asian republics all have their own national interests. Moscow’s cooperation with Central Asia must be equitable and based on the Russia's national interests.
As the United States seeks to respond to the democratic challenges of the Arab Spring, it can be helpful to consider what has been learned since the early democracy promotion experiences of 1989.
With the bureaucratic infrastructure for solid bilateral relations between China and Russia already in place, the next step is increased dialogue between the countries’ intellectuals, who can examine the relationship from a broader perspective.
Russia plays an extremely important role as mediator in the current Libyan conflict. If Moscow can succeed in this role, there would be a clear positive benefit to Libya and its neighbors.
In the wake of the Arab Spring, some countries, like Egypt and Tunisia, are in the process of a real democratic transformation, while others, like Libya, Yemen, and Syria, are in deep crisis.