Carnegie Moscow Center
The Ukraine crisis has betrayed fissures in the Russo-Kazakh relationship. It is difficult to predict a post-Nazarbayev Kazakh policy toward Russia, but developments in Ukraine suggest that future Kazakh leaders will have to deal with a new source of friction with the Kremlin.
The apparently long-term rupture of Russia’s relations with the West offers an opportunity to China to enhance its already close relationship with the Kremlin and thus turn the global geopolitical balance in its favor.
The world can be an awfully dangerous and unpredictable place.
Looking at the Eurasian Economic Union from Kazakhstan’s perspective, the EEU offers more benefits than drawbacks to the country’s leadership.
The radical jihadi group known as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. A little bit more than twenty years after it first appeared, this on-going transformation has made it less connected to Uzbekistan, and more to a global jihad.
The fundamental dilemma of Moscow’s policy lies in whether it is worth cooperating to achieve a comprehensive agreement with Iran, which would primarily be a success for the United States, under conditions of confrontation with the West over Ukraine.
Some say the chaos in western Iraq is foreshadowing of what awaits post-2014 Afghanistan. But Kabul knows its vulnerabilities and will not shun outside help.
The world treats Afghanistan as a doctor would treat a seriously ill child that nevertheless shows some signs of improvement. If Moscow sincerely wants Afghanistan to return to peace and stability, then it should stop looking at this country through the prism of its present relations with Washington.
Although participation of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in the recent attacks on a Karachi airport is not confirmed yet, many analysts believe the IMU to be a real force that threatens the countries in the region.
Russia must know that an exclusive alliance with China will incur its own cost.