Carnegie Moscow Center
In Syria, as elsewhere, Russia is acting according to a system whereby it escalates a crisis so as to claim a role in the world and challenge “American leadership.” This pattern of behavior dangerously simplifies the complexities of world politics. When one intervention ends, Russia is forced to look for a new one.
Shoring up the Assad regime and killing jihadi fighters are not the only objectives that Russia is pursuing in Syria. Moscow’s intervention is as much about Washington as it is about the Islamic State.
Moscow is likely to come to grips with the idea that a political solution for the Syrian conflict would include a post-Assad Syria. But the real question may be whether outside players can join diplomatic forces with Moscow to finally end the crisis.
Vladimir Putin is making a bid to regain global respectability by leading a fight against ISIS and evoking the anti-Hitler coalition of World War II. The West is yet to be convinced that the appeal to be “brothers-in-arms” is serious.
The current nuclear hysteria resides first and foremost in the minds of Russian and U.S. government officials. Fears of a nonnuclear, armed confrontation between Russia, on the one hand, and the United States and NATO, on the other, are also unfounded.
By establishing a strategic presence in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin is securing the future of a vital ally in the Middle East.
Moscow does not want to escalate confrontation with the West over Syria beyond the current level without what it sees as good reason. In general, Russia’s behavior in the Middle East has been largely defensive, with only isolated and mostly inept attempts to inflict harm on the West.
The world powers agree that the Islamic State must be defeated, even though they disagree on how to do it. In spite of Washington’s anger with Russian activism in Syria, a degree of coordination is advisable.
Putin’s recent theatrics indicate a plan to run for re-election in 2018. But despite his lack of opponents, Russia’s current problems make the path to re-election more complicated this time around.
The Russian government provoked controversy with mass destruction of European food. The government could not allow its counter-sanctions policy to be seen to be failing and is exploiting different attitudes to banned Western products amongst the opposition and the general public.