New Eastern Europe

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Double Jeopardy: Why Moscow’s Demands Seem Unreasonable to Minsk

    Russia’s suggestion that Belarus resurrect a 1999 agreement to get compensation for Russia’s oil tax maneuver looks fairly cynical to Minsk. After all, by joining the EEU, in which single markets—including for energy commodities—are supposed to be created between 2018 and 2024, Belarus has already paid for all of its tariff preferences.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Is the Russia-Belarus Merger Anything More Than a Mirage?

    There’s no desperation or desire from the Belarusian side right now to obtain concessions from Moscow at any price. The damage to Belarus’s economy from Russia’s “tax maneuver” is serious, but not fatal. The cumulation of these losses will only anger Lukashenko and make him less prepared to compromise.

    • Op-Ed

    Russia and the Western Balkans: A Last Stand or More of the Same?

    As European leaders make it increasingly clear that rapid EU membership for the Western Balkans is out of the question, there is speculation that other global powers may also reconsider their strategies in the region. Due to its longstanding ties with the Balkans and vast experience in meddling, Russia sparks particular fear in the West.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Official Visit Symbolizes New U.S. Attitude to Belarus

    Both Belarusian officials and U.S. presidential adviser John Bolton were quick to put out the message that the visit was more about form than content. Bolton said openly that no issues had been resolved at the meeting, but that he had not expected otherwise. Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei said that no one was enticing Minsk over to any side, and that the two sides had simply agreed to keep communicating.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    The Path to Politics: Belarus Prepares for Double Elections

    Elections in Belarus are traditionally administrative rituals. However, amid growing tensions with Russia and increased discussion of a future presidential transition in Minsk, the upcoming Belarusian parliamentary and presidential votes may be the start of cautious political change in the country.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    All Talk, No Action on Russia-Belarus Integration

    The distrustful, authoritarian regimes of Russia and Belarus are incapable of sharing power. The most the two sides can do without betraying their sovereign interests is to start coordinating their decisions on various sectors of the economy a little more closely, such as agreeing on a unified goal for the inflation rate. Then, if it’s really necessary, this can also be described as integration.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Ukraine’s New President Needs a Strategy on Donbas—and Fast

    Zelensky is trying to find balance on the incendiary issue of the Donbas. During his visits to Europe, he adhered carefully to the previous foreign policy line, calling on European leaders to keep up pressure on Russia through sanctions. But at home, he is more open to compromise, and is trying to find allies among the oligarchs.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Moldovan Regime Change Is Rare Example of Russian-Western Teamwork

    The collapse of oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s regime in Moldova has brought this small, impoverished former Soviet nation to global attention. The bomb planted by Plahotniuc was removed jointly by Russia, the United States, and the EU. The Kremlin and the West agreed to work together, demonstrating that outside interference can be a positive thing.

    • Op-Ed

    Why Russia Is Watching EU Elections Closely

    Moscow hopes the new European Parliament will take a softer line on rules and values that clash with Russian interests.

    • Op-Ed

    Double or Quits: A Russian Approach to North Macedonia and NATO

    The Kremlin’s attempt to prevent North Macedonia joining NATO created some difficulties but proved to be rather clumsy and damaging to Russia’s own interests. With the accession appearing to be a done deal, Russia is now likely to lose interest in North Macedonia.

Carnegie Experts on
New Eastern Europe

  • expert thumbnail - Baunov
    Alexander Baunov
    Senior Fellow
    Editor in Chief of Carnegie.ru
    Moscow Center
    Baunov is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center and editor in chief of Carnegie.ru.
  • expert thumbnail - Movchan
    Andrey Movchan
    Nonresident Scholar
    Economic Policy Program
    Moscow Center
    Movchan is a nonresident scholar in the Economic Policy Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
  • expert thumbnail - Samorukov
    Maxim Samorukov
    Fellow
    Deputy Editor of Carnegie.ru
    Moscow Center
    Samorukov is a fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center and deputy editor of Carnegie.ru.
  • expert thumbnail - Trenin
    Dmitri Trenin
    Director
    Moscow Center
    Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, has been with the center since its inception. He also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.

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