New Eastern Europe

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Coronavirus Inflames Russia-Belarus Quarrel

    Having closed the border, even for six weeks, Russia has taken yet another psychologically important step in the process of its estrangement from Belarus.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Oatmeal and Water: The Thinning Belarus-Russia Relationship

    A row over energy prices is a sign that Belarus and Russia are set to have a cooler and more pragmatic relationship. Over the next few years, Minsk is likely to build a more balanced relationship with the West and Moscow, like that of Armenia or Kazakhstan.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Oil Spoils the Russia-Belarus Romance

    Belarus’s resolution to become less dependent on Russian oil has nothing to do with its economy. Minsk is making a political statement with the aim of depriving Moscow of one of its main bargaining chips in their relationship.

    • Paper

    A Spoiler in the Balkans? Russia and the Final Resolution of the Kosovo Conflict

    So long as Serbia does not formally recognize Kosovo’s independence, it must rely on Russia’s veto power in the UN Security Council. That dependency gives Russia a nontrivial degree of influence, both in the region and within Serbia itself.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Life After the Coalition: What Now for Moldova?

    The pro-Russia Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova has managed to accumulate an impressive amount of institutional power. But this concentration of power brings not only advantages, but also greater vulnerabilities, especially when there are plenty of destabilizing factors at work, from uncertain gas supplies to mass voting by residents of the breakaway region Transnistria.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Double Jeopardy: Why Moscow’s Demands Seem Unreasonable to Minsk

    Russia’s suggestion that Belarus resurrect a 1999 agreement to get compensation for Russia’s oil tax maneuver looks fairly cynical to Minsk. After all, by joining the EEU, in which single markets—including for energy commodities—are supposed to be created between 2018 and 2024, Belarus has already paid for all of its tariff preferences.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Is the Russia-Belarus Merger Anything More Than a Mirage?

    There’s no desperation or desire from the Belarusian side right now to obtain concessions from Moscow at any price. The damage to Belarus’s economy from Russia’s “tax maneuver” is serious, but not fatal. The cumulation of these losses will only anger Lukashenko and make him less prepared to compromise.

    • Op-Ed

    Russia and the Western Balkans: A Last Stand or More of the Same?

    As European leaders make it increasingly clear that rapid EU membership for the Western Balkans is out of the question, there is speculation that other global powers may also reconsider their strategies in the region. Due to its longstanding ties with the Balkans and vast experience in meddling, Russia sparks particular fear in the West.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Official Visit Symbolizes New U.S. Attitude to Belarus

    Both Belarusian officials and U.S. presidential adviser John Bolton were quick to put out the message that the visit was more about form than content. Bolton said openly that no issues had been resolved at the meeting, but that he had not expected otherwise. Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei said that no one was enticing Minsk over to any side, and that the two sides had simply agreed to keep communicating.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    The Path to Politics: Belarus Prepares for Double Elections

    Elections in Belarus are traditionally administrative rituals. However, amid growing tensions with Russia and increased discussion of a future presidential transition in Minsk, the upcoming Belarusian parliamentary and presidential votes may be the start of cautious political change in the country.

Carnegie Experts on
New Eastern Europe

  • expert thumbnail - Baunov
    Alexander Baunov
    Senior Fellow
    Editor in Chief of Carnegie.ru
    Moscow Center
    Baunov is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center and editor in chief of Carnegie.ru.
  • expert thumbnail - Movchan
    Andrey Movchan
    Nonresident Scholar
    Economic Policy Program
    Moscow Center
    Movchan is a nonresident scholar in the Economic Policy Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
  • expert thumbnail - Samorukov
    Maxim Samorukov
    Fellow
    Deputy Editor of Carnegie.ru
    Moscow Center
    Samorukov is a fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center and deputy editor of Carnegie.ru.
  • expert thumbnail - Trenin
    Dmitri Trenin
    Director
    Moscow Center
    Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, has been with the center since its inception. He also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.

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