Carnegie Moscow Center
If the nuclear talks fail, further Russian cooperation on coercing Iran is not likely while Russia and the West remain locked in a standoff over Ukraine. Moreover, Russia and Iran may move to build closer relations in the future.
The confrontation between Russia and the United States that the world experiences today potentially could even be more dangerous than the Cold War, because each side believes that it has a monopoly on truth.
The Ukraine showdown is even scarier and more dangerous than most people think: President Putin is making it up as he goes along.
Ukraine and the global crisis over it point to the start of a new period in world politics. Great powers—Russia overtly, China covertly—are challenging the U.S.-dominated order. Also, in the foreseeable future, there will be no common security system in Europe.
The new Minsk agreement will not necessarily prevent further escalation, but it might postpone it. The world should work hard to make sure that the shaky truce does not founder, leading to a broader war.
When Russian diplomats talk about Ukraine, they are actually speaking to just one man—Vladimir Putin. Moscow does not see any value in reaching out to the broad policy community in the West. The scary thing is that this behavior is not a consequence of the Ukrainian crisis, but one of its major sources.
Through its actions in Ukraine, Russia wants to consolidate its new strategic perimeter without being drawn into a full-scale war.
Those fearing a repeat of the Cold War should understand that the current situation may be worse than the Cold War in some respects.
It is extremely difficult to predict the prospects for new comprehensive agreements on nuclear threat reduction in the midst of the current international crisis. But crises do not last forever, and there may come a time when all of the facets of the unique Nunn-Lugar program will be deemed useful.
Sending weapons to Ukraine could prolong the country’s agony and distract it from the vital task of reconstruction.