Carnegie Moscow Center
The “turn to the East” has dramatically changed Russia’s strategy towards China and many underlying assumptions. It has also dramatically influenced the mainstream analysis of Chinese security intentions in Northeast Asia. The influence of this major shift in national policy, as well as policymakers’ and scholars’ perceptions of China, was felt throughout 2015.
Russia's recent military exercises with Pakistan showed that Moscow still views many international issues through the prism of its relations with the U.S. Such a position might put Russia-India relations at risk.
Before India and Pakistan enter the SCO, Russia and China should make an effort to help them prevent future conflicts. Failing to help manage the relationship now carries a serious risk for the entire SCO project started by Beijing and Moscow 15 years ago. So, China and Russia owe it to themselves to begin defusing tensions between their partners.
Chinese and Russians now better understand both the potential and the limitations of their relationship. They need to move ahead on concrete issues, making sure that what is agreed upon at the top actually gets implemented.
Position of Russia in India is strong in certain niches. At the same time, even in those spheres of the Indian-arms market in which Russia feels quite surely today and it will do both countries good if they maintain it.
The Kremlin’s new development program for the Kuril Islands is as generous and extensive as its predecessors. The key difference, however, is that now the military—the one area seemingly immune to cutbacks—will be responsible for making sure the program is implemented.
Russia has finally hit on a security agenda of interest to its Asian partners. Buoyed by its success in Syria, Moscow is presenting itself as a standard-bearer in the war on Islamic terrorism and a source of cutting-edge practices for ASEAN countries that are facing this problem. The Syrian campaign is also helping to promote Russian military technology on Asian markets.
Russia must avoid strictly bilateral relations with Asian countries, even China. All regional relations should be considered part of a broader Asian-Pacific strategy and coordinated to fit that strategy.
Pakistan cannot replace or even influence Russia’s strategic partnership with India. India will always play a very special role in Russia's foreign policy and Russia is very much interested in keeping the strategic level of its ties with India.
Twenty years after Russia was first declared a partner of ASEAN, its economic role in Southeast Asia is still limited. Moscow’s position in the region is largely guided by its strong relationships with Vietnam and China.