Carnegie Moscow Center
For over two decades, no one in the West felt the need for regulating Russia’s relations with NATO. The lesson of the Napoleonic wars about the need to integrate a former adversary—which was forgotten after WWI—has been forgotten again.
Eurasia Outlook asked its experts to reflect on the dramatic events of 2014 and to share their predictions for Russia's future and for its role on the global stage going forward.
As one of his final acts in 2014, President Putin signed on December 26 the country’s new military doctrine. The new doctrine makes it clear that even if the West is not officially an adversary, it is a powerful competitor and a bitter rival, a source of most of military risks and threats.
The crisis presents Putin with an opportunity to tighten his grip on business, to see who is loyal and who is not, to pick winners and losers, to decide who will receive state support and whose assets should be “redistributed”.
Many in Russia believe that the EU sanctions appeared as a result of the Ukrainian conflict and pressure from Washington. In fact, the reasons for the current deterioration in Russia’s relations with Europe are far more profound. But this does not mean that another—European—front in Russia’s confrontation with the West has now been opened.
Russia and the United States have entered a period of severe confrontation. Caution, sober calculations, and strategic vision of possible international developments are necessary in the present circumstances.
Vladimir Putin’s annual address to parliament on December 4, 2014 has laid down the Kremlin's medium-term strategy. The next four or five years will be very difficult if not critical for Russia, and the Russians, in Putin’s view, absolutely must meet the challenges and win.
By reactivating its policy on Pyongyang, Moscow is sending messages to Seoul, Tokyo, Washington, and Beijing, which should be properly understood.
Recent events in Russian-American relations are often compared with events during the Cold War. There is no doubt that, along with other factors, information will play a key role in the new form of Russian-American confrontation.
Putin’s statements on weapons of mass destruction at the Valdai forum may have been just a tactical move to offset his harsh criticism of the United States. But it may well be an invitation to a serious discussion with Washington.