Carnegie Moscow Center
There are many Ukrainians, even in the southeast, who have grown accustomed to Ukrainian independence and would resist efforts to fragment Ukraine and force the annexation or creation of quasi-independent republics.
If Washington and Moscow move forward with creating a multilateral nuclear arms reduction dialogue, they should look first to France and the United Kingdom.
After the end of the Cold War, the West neglected the task of solving the “Russia problem” through integration. Trying to solve it now through economic warfare is not going to work.
Putin’s rhetorical shift toward calm and congeniality shows that now Putin is presenting himself as a victor who has formulated and applied the new rules of the game.
Strong Japanese-Russian relations are economically beneficial and a strategic counterbalance against China’s influence. But the Ukraine crisis and Japan’s U.S. loyalties could have damaging effects.
The European Union continues to be in the back seat of a process that threatens Ukraine and which fundamentally affects the EU’s relations with Moscow.
If Ukraine is allowed to break up, or made to do so, Russia and the West will spin into a confrontation from which both will emerge the losers. Both sides need to keep Ukraine whole.
Western explanations for Putin’s behavior in Ukraine too often have a self-justifying ring to them.
For the U.S. public and its political establishment, Russia is back as an adversary. Having taken on U.S. power, the Russian state will need to be very smart—and very good—to withstand the confrontation.
Moscow has demonstrated its strong determination to follow its own path on the world scene and build its own economic, political, and military base.