Carnegie Moscow Center
Now that Saakashvili is finally history, the chances that Russia will soon take an active interest in Georgia are going up. This would concern the settlement of the main issue in Georgian-Russian relations—the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Ilham Aliyev is attempting modernization without wholesale political reform. Most of the veterans of the Azerbaijani elite remain in their jobs, including the elderly prime minister and presidential chief of staff. The skyline is changing in Baku, but so far the street-plan remains the same.
The experiment of a peaceful power transfer in Georgia, if successful, will determine more than just the country’s future. It will reveal the possible trajectory of other post-Soviet states that will attempt to move toward an open society.
Giorgi Margvelashvili, won the presidential election in Georgia with 62 percent of the vote. Second place and 22 percent went to former speaker of parliament, David Bakradze, of the United National Movement. That was quite a disastrous performance from a party which only one year ago was running the country.
Saakashvili used charm as the centerpiece of his grand strategy for winning over the West. The question is not why this strategy failed but why it lasted as long as it did.
Introducing visas and closing borders with Central Asian countries should not be the first steps in solving the problem of ethnic hatred in Russia. Instead, there should come a transformation of the entire Russian state, a regime change, and a resolution of the problem of the North Caucasus.
The coming presidential election in Georgia on October 27 will be straightforward and uninteresting. The post of president is being trimmed down and will lose most of its executive functions. And yet, the candidates are as if conspiring to give the poll a lot more drama than might have been expected a few weeks ago.
Ilham Aliyev has won reelection for a third term. As he begins his eleventh year as president of Azerbaijan, the huge shadow of his father and predecessor inevitably begins to recede and this is the moment for him to set a new political agenda for the country—if he wants too.
It has been two decades since post-Soviet states gained independence, but democracy fails to emerge and shake autocratic regimes, although they have the educated and intellectual elites it takes to develop it.
The presidential election results in Azerbaijan should be no surprise. However, they were a real test for the regime as it was the first time it was confronted with a serious opposition. But most importantly these elections also became a test for the Azerbaijani opposition itself.