Carnegie Moscow Center
2014 was a year of crisis. Ebola, ISIS, and Donbas are now part of the global lexicon. Eurasia Outlook experts weigh in on how crises on Russia’s periphery affected the country, and what these developments mean for Moscow in 2015.
After another failed attempt to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, all now depends on whether Russia, the United States, and other states can find the political will to take responsibility for global security.
Russian participation in the nuclear talks has demonstrated that despite the depth of the Ukrainian crisis and all the existing conflicts between Russia and the West, there are no reasons to consider Russia a purely destructive force that is bent on harming the West.
The experience gained in Vienna may be useful in future talks. In order to make the further negotiations effective, both Obama and Rouhani need to find a way to achieve a consensus of support for their actions within their own political establishments.
An agreement between Iran and the P5+1 will not deal a significant blow to Moscow’s relationship with Tehran. While the nuclear issue remains the most important aspect of Western relations with Tehran, the Russian-Iranian agenda is much broader.
Washington and its allies should strategically continue patient diplomacy unless Iran resumes provocative nuclear activities.
On November 11, Russia and Iran signed a package of documents paving the way for Moscow to construct up to eight nuclear power units. With this agreement, Russia and Iran have established a solid economic foundation for political dialogue.
The fundamental dilemma of Moscow’s policy lies in whether it is worth cooperating to achieve a comprehensive agreement with Iran, which would primarily be a success for the United States, under conditions of confrontation with the West over Ukraine.
A number of complex questions remain unresolved as negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program enter their final stage. The main question is whether the cooperation between Russia and the West would continue at the previous levels in the midst of the crisis in Ukraine.
Russia’s annexation of Crimea and possible future incursions into eastern Ukraine could reshape the geopolitical map of Europe and derail cooperation between Moscow and the West for years to come.