Carnegie Moscow Center
The United States will probably continue to limit its presence in global affairs because Barack Obama is committed to a more moderate U.S. role in foreign affairs.
The world is seeking leadership from U.S. President Obama on a range of foreign policy challenges, from Iran’s nuclear program to Sino-U.S. relations.
Nuclear nonproliferation will only be successful if the Nuclear Five, especially the United States and Russia, set an example for the rest of the world by fulfilling their pledges to pursue disarmament.
Despite the Kremlin's need for domestic and international legitimacy, there was widespread irregularity and fraud in Russia's recent presidential elections.
If Putin is re-elected president, he is likely to seek to maintain continuity and stability in a time of economic uncertainty and his return will not significantly alter Russian domestic politics or the U.S.-Russia reset.
If Russian Prime Minister Putin is elected Russia’s next president, it will likely not have a significant impact on the success of the reset in U.S.-Russian bilateral relations.
Given that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has probably been involved in the U.S.-Russian reset in bilateral relations, a high degree of continuity in Russian policy toward the United States is likely when he becomes president.
Putin’s expected return to the Kremlin comes as little surprise, but it raises questions about President Medvedev’s future, the role of the Russian prime minister, and the nature of the U.S.-Russia relationship.
Although Washington invested in Dmitry Medvedev as Russian president, they also kept in mind the power of Vladimir Putin. With Putin’s decision to return to the presidency in 2012, communication between the two capitals is likely to become more streamlined and straightforward.
The realization that both the United States and the Soviet Union shared an interest in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons led to a 1968 agreement that existing nuclear weapons states would work toward nuclear zero if other states agreed not to develop nuclear weapons.