Carnegie Moscow Center
While Azerbaijan is unlikely to ever recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh or sign a treaty with Armenia concerning the contested territory, it is also unlikely that a war will break out over the territory’s status.
While the nations of the Caucasus are heavily influenced by historical narratives of intractable ethnic conflicts, a more critical look at the region’s history reveals a number of surprising alliances and pragmatic resolutions.
The attack at the Baksan hydropower station may be a sign that the militants in the Russian republic of Kabardino-Balkaria are switching to guerilla warfare and that the authorities must rethink their strategy for how to deal with the North Caucasus.
The recent terrorist attack in Stavropol suggests that if Russia is still facing an increasing number of terrorist attacks, then perhaps it is time for the authorities to rethink their policies for the pacification of the Caucasus.
The recent attacks demonstrate the Kremlin’s lack of success in defeating the North Caucasus insurgency believed to be behind the March metro bombings, as well as the impossibility of isolating the violence in the North Caucasus without turning Russia into a police state.
Both the United States and Russia face the threat of global terrorism, and they should work together and share intelligence in order to respond to terrorist threats.
In the wake of the recent Moscow suicide bombings, the Russian people may begin to draw a connection between corruption among police and security forces and the inability of those security forces to protect Russian citizens from terrorist attacks.
As violence in the North Caucasus surges, Kremlin policies and its loyal, but brutal, local leaders have played a critical role in causing the situation.
Russia’s new strength and its waning dependence on Western financial institutions help explain the Kremlin’s rejection of a unipolar world dominated by the United States. Russia’s actions in Georgia follow through on what Putin has been saying for years–Russia will not allow Georgia or Ukraine to become a member of NATO.
As U.S.-Russia relations continue to sour over the Russia-Georgia conflict, it is unclear how the two nations will be able to rebuild their relationship. Although the conflict led to the current deterioration in relations, problems between the two countries were present before. Despite strong rhetoric from Washington, there is a need for an improved dialogue between the United States and Russia.