Select filters
21.02.2017
Why Turkmenistan Bothered Holding Presidential Elections

Why Turkmenistan Bothered Holding Presidential Elections

Declining hydrocarbon prices and a gas dispute with Russia have kept Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov from bringing back the luster and prosperity of Turkmenistan’s golden age. The next few years promise to be even harder for Turkmenistan’s economy, which is why parliament decided to extend Berdymukhamedov’s term in office from five to seven years.
9.02.2017
Opposition From Within: Russia’s New Counter-Elite

Opposition From Within: Russia’s New Counter-Elite

In political systems that block change through elections, the main guarantee of a regime’s stability is its capacity to absorb a potential counter-elite. At the moment, the regime is preventing any such renewal from occurring. Yet a counter-elite is in the process of formation nonetheless—one that can eventually take Russia in a new direction.
8.02.2017
The Far-Reaching Consequences of Belarus’s Conflict with Russia

The Far-Reaching Consequences of Belarus’s Conflict with Russia

Even if Minsk and Moscow are able to resolve their current dispute, the standoff will go down in history, at least in Belarus. After Belarus’s declaration of independence and the creation of its state infrastructure—its bureaucracy, currency, and armed forces—this conflict will be one of the most important stages in the country’s movement away from Russia.
6.02.2017
Continuity in Kazakhstan: Nazarbayev’s Curious Appeal for Constitutional Reform

Continuity in Kazakhstan: Nazarbayev’s Curious Appeal for Constitutional Reform

If none of the Kazakh president’s current associates will agree to accept the right of another to become the country’s second national leader, it’s inevitable that Kazakhstan will be ruled by some kind of collective leadership after Nazarbayev. However, nothing in the president’s special address suggested any mechanism for the transfer of power.
31.01.2017
The Beginning of the End of Russia’s Power Vertical

The Beginning of the End of Russia’s Power Vertical

Instead of consolidating in the run-up to the 2018 presidential election, Russian elites have started making the structures they manage more autonomous. Uncertain about the future of the system, governors, directors of state-run enterprises, and heads of state bodies are carving out their own personal empires. Once centripetal, the Russian political system is now governed by centrifugal forces.
30.01.2017
The Benefits of Living in Russia’s Hybrid State

The Benefits of Living in Russia’s Hybrid State

It’s completely rational for the elites to avoid change, although it betrays their inability to look beyond the horizon. They are not frightened enough by the current stagnation to initiate changes in the system for their own sake. But what they do fear greatly is losing everything all at once by pulling some crumbling brick out of the system, causing the whole construction to come crashing down.
23.12.2016
History Unvarnished: In Search of Alternative Russian Heroes

History Unvarnished: In Search of Alternative Russian Heroes

For centuries, Russian history has glorified the state and those who sacrifice themselves for the state. It’s time to commemorate a different kind of hero.
22.12.2016
Russia Enters a Time of Transition, by Stealth

Russia Enters a Time of Transition, by Stealth

There are multiple indications that public support for the ruling regime in Russia is provisional and the country is entering a period of post-Putin transition. Neither the authorities nor the opposition is prepared for it.
19.12.2016
Will Mirziyoyev Bring Change to Uzbekistan?

Will Mirziyoyev Bring Change to Uzbekistan?

It will be difficult for Uzbekistan’s new president to bring about foundational change without moving toward some kind of glasnost. Though Uzbekistan’s tightly controlled political system has its limits, Mirziyoyev will have to loosen the reins in one way or another.
16.12.2016
Putin Bides His Time: The Kremlin’s Transition Strategy

Putin Bides His Time: The Kremlin’s Transition Strategy

Vladimir Putin’s annual address to the Federation Council typically lets him map out the country’s foreign and domestic policy course for the coming year. Yet Putin’s speech this time—one of his longest and strangest ever—was essentially an admission that he has little sense of what the events of the coming months will bring or how he plans to deal with them.
15.12.2016
Pensions and Security: Russian Budget Reveals Government Priorities

Pensions and Security: Russian Budget Reveals Government Priorities

The budget clearly illustrates its authors’ thinking. They fear popular discontent and so don’t want to risk taking unpopular steps. The regime’s main goal is short-term stability, so it keeps supporting the paternalistic governing model, which is increasingly trapped in the cycle of social spending.
8.12.2016
Digging Up My Grandfather’s Killers—A Journey Through the Stalinist Archives

Digging Up My Grandfather’s Killers—A Journey Through the Stalinist Archives

I was able to read the secret police files of my grandfather, who died in the Russian gulag in 1946, and then cross-reference the names of the men who persecuted him in the new database published by Memorial. Russia’s grandsons need to confront the truth about what their grandfathers did—but the Russian state would prefer its people to live with historical amnesia.
6.12.2016
Gazprom’s EU Strategy Is a Dead End

Gazprom’s EU Strategy Is a Dead End

The main obstacle to energy negotiations between Russia and the EU is the clash between their perceptions of energy security. Moscow claims that the biggest threat to European energy security is Ukraine’s unreliability as a gas transit country, while Brussels believes the construction of new Russian pipelines circumventing Ukraine will do nothing to improve the EU’s energy security.
2.12.2016
The Rogun Dam: A Source of Division in Central Asia

The Rogun Dam: A Source of Division in Central Asia

Tajikistan, plagued by frequent widespread blackouts, has begun construction of an ambitious dam project that could significantly ease the country’s perennial energy shortages. However, in a region notorious for water disputes, neighboring Uzbekistan is staunchly opposed to the dam. A long-term solution is essential to maintaining peace in the region.
29.11.2016
Three Dimensions: What Does Trump Victory Mean for Ukraine?

Three Dimensions: What Does Trump Victory Mean for Ukraine?

Following Donald Trump’s victory, Carnegie.ru asked three experts, one in Russia, one in Ukraine, and one in the United States, to comment on the question: “What impact will Trump’s victory have on Ukraine?”
24.11.2016
A Quiet Coup? What Lay Behind the Russian Minister’s Arrest

A Quiet Coup? What Lay Behind the Russian Minister’s Arrest

Since this spring, it has become clear that Russia’s political system of managed chaos is devolving into a free-for-all in which Rosneft chief Igor Sechin and his small cadre of current and former FSB officers have the upper hand.
21.11.2016
Does the Kremlin Have a New Agent of Influence in Uzbekistan?

Does the Kremlin Have a New Agent of Influence in Uzbekistan?

The Kremlin has tried to use billionaires to do its bidding in post-Soviet states before—with mixed success. When it comes to Alisher Usmanov, the hurdles to a successful partnership are particularly high.
18.11.2016
In Moldova’s Vote, the Real Winner is Plahotniuc

In Moldova’s Vote, the Real Winner is Plahotniuc

The election of the pro-Russian socialist Igor Dodon as Moldova’s new president obscures the fact that the country’s main nominally pro-European oligarch won most from the outcome.
18.11.2016
America’s Trump, Russia’s Trump

America’s Trump, Russia’s Trump

Russians’ high expectations of Donald Trump may be disappointed. Trump and Putin have a lot in common, and Trump’s victory has dashed the hopes of those Russians who believe in American democracy. But the new American president-elect’s unpredictable personality could also make for a stormy relationship.
17.11.2016
Why Kremlin Spin Doctors Will Regret Their Enthusiasm for Trump

Why Kremlin Spin Doctors Will Regret Their Enthusiasm for Trump

Russia’s propaganda masters didn’t expect Trump to win. State media outlets praised him every which way and painted him as a good friend to Russia, unofficially backed by the Kremlin. But the idea was that Trump would be cheated of his victory in yet another example of how great a role Putin plays on the world stage and how unscrupulous the American elite is.
Please note

You are leaving the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy's website and entering another Carnegie global site.

请注意...

你将离开清华—卡内基中心网站,进入卡内基其他全球中心的网站。