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6.12.2016
Gazprom’s EU Strategy Is a Dead End

Gazprom’s EU Strategy Is a Dead End

The main obstacle to energy negotiations between Russia and the EU is the clash between their perceptions of energy security. Moscow claims that the biggest threat to European energy security is Ukraine’s unreliability as a gas transit country, while Brussels believes the construction of new Russian pipelines circumventing Ukraine will do nothing to improve the EU’s energy security.
2.12.2016
The Rogun Dam: A Source of Division in Central Asia

The Rogun Dam: A Source of Division in Central Asia

Tajikistan, plagued by frequent widespread blackouts, has begun construction of an ambitious dam project that could significantly ease the country’s perennial energy shortages. However, in a region notorious for water disputes, neighboring Uzbekistan is staunchly opposed to the dam. A long-term solution is essential to maintaining peace in the region.
29.11.2016
Three Dimensions: What Does Trump Victory Mean for Ukraine?

Three Dimensions: What Does Trump Victory Mean for Ukraine?

Following Donald Trump’s victory, Carnegie.ru asked three experts, one in Russia, one in Ukraine, and one in the United States, to comment on the question: “What impact will Trump’s victory have on Ukraine?”
24.11.2016
A Quiet Coup? What Lay Behind the Russian Minister’s Arrest

A Quiet Coup? What Lay Behind the Russian Minister’s Arrest

Since this spring, it has become clear that Russia’s political system of managed chaos is devolving into a free-for-all in which Rosneft chief Igor Sechin and his small cadre of current and former FSB officers have the upper hand.
21.11.2016
Does the Kremlin Have a New Agent of Influence in Uzbekistan?

Does the Kremlin Have a New Agent of Influence in Uzbekistan?

The Kremlin has tried to use billionaires to do its bidding in post-Soviet states before—with mixed success. When it comes to Alisher Usmanov, the hurdles to a successful partnership are particularly high.
18.11.2016
In Moldova’s Vote, the Real Winner is Plahotniuc

In Moldova’s Vote, the Real Winner is Plahotniuc

The election of the pro-Russian socialist Igor Dodon as Moldova’s new president obscures the fact that the country’s main nominally pro-European oligarch won most from the outcome.
18.11.2016
America’s Trump, Russia’s Trump

America’s Trump, Russia’s Trump

Russians’ high expectations of Donald Trump may be disappointed. Trump and Putin have a lot in common, and Trump’s victory has dashed the hopes of those Russians who believe in American democracy. But the new American president-elect’s unpredictable personality could also make for a stormy relationship.
17.11.2016
Why Kremlin Spin Doctors Will Regret Their Enthusiasm for Trump

Why Kremlin Spin Doctors Will Regret Their Enthusiasm for Trump

Russia’s propaganda masters didn’t expect Trump to win. State media outlets praised him every which way and painted him as a good friend to Russia, unofficially backed by the Kremlin. But the idea was that Trump would be cheated of his victory in yet another example of how great a role Putin plays on the world stage and how unscrupulous the American elite is.
15.11.2016
How Long Can Belarus’s Balancing Act Last?

How Long Can Belarus’s Balancing Act Last?

Russia and the West are less and less willing to compromise with Belarus. Both know that Belarus is in a weak negotiating position and are demanding more of Minsk than ever before.
11.11.2016
The Eurasian Gap: Winners and Losers of the Economic Union

The Eurasian Gap: Winners and Losers of the Economic Union

It’s not surprising that the members of the EAEU are struggling to adopt a Customs Code. In many ways, the problem stems from Kyrgyzstan’s accession to the EAEU, which mostly benefits Chinese exporters to Russia, who now have less red tape to deal with and more contraband routes available. The Russian budget, which may miss out on about $340 million a year, is the biggest loser.
8.11.2016
Russian Politics in Ruins: What Vyacheslav Volodin Left Behind

Russian Politics in Ruins: What Vyacheslav Volodin Left Behind

The political system Volodin leaves behind—that is, a system without any real politics—allows the regime the illusion of control. But the system’s domain has been all but reduced to the tiny world of politicians who agree to the Kremlin’s rules. Activists, ambitious players, and most importantly Russian citizens find themselves outside the bounds of politics.
2.11.2016
A Russian Reformer Returns to Power—But What For?

A Russian Reformer Returns to Power—But What For?

What will the two recently appointed behind-the-scenes technocrats, Sergei Kiriyenko and Anton Vaino, do in the Kremlin? They will have no say in foreign policy, and even in domestic politics they cannot change course unless the president desires it. It seems that both are awaiting orders. They must have a mission of some sort, a specific project to carry out. But what is it?
2.11.2016
Sergei Kiriyenko: The Dreamer in the Kremlin

Sergei Kiriyenko: The Dreamer in the Kremlin

Many say Sergei Kiriyenko, the new deputy chief of staff of the presidential administration, is a technocrat who was brought in to manage a well-established political system. But there’s more to Kiriyenko: like other disciples of the philosopher Georgy Shchedrovitsky, Kiriyenko believes that reality can be altered and society programmed.
31.10.2016
Three Dimensions: Is the Break Between the Kremlin and the West Permanent?

Three Dimensions: Is the Break Between the Kremlin and the West Permanent?

As the U.S. presidential election approaches on November 8, Carnegie.ru asked three experts, one in Russia, one in the United States, and one in Europe, to comment on the question: “Is the break between the Putin administration and the West permanent?”
27.10.2016
How Long Until Russia’s Financial Reserves Run Out?

How Long Until Russia’s Financial Reserves Run Out?

Talk of an impending economic collapse in Russia is misplaced. The Reserve Fund is doing what it was built to do—cushioning the economy from the shock of falling oil and gas prices and giving it time to adjust to new conditions.
20.10.2016
Turkish Stream: The Cost of Russia’s Stubbornness

Turkish Stream: The Cost of Russia’s Stubbornness

Unlike Russian gas pumped via Ukraine and Germany, that flowing through Turkey will face tough competition from Azerbaijani, Iranian, Iraqi, and possibly even Turkmen and Israeli gas. Gazprom’s rivals won’t need to ship their gas as far, and they will have much lower pipeline construction costs. The gas market in southeastern Europe is not that big and doesn’t have a lot of room for growth.
18.10.2016
Gazprom’s Battle for Europe

Gazprom’s Battle for Europe

Why is Gazprom selling gas to Europe below cost? So that companies from the United States and other countries do the same, fall into a price war, and eventually go broke.
17.10.2016
The Ominous End of the Russia-U.S. Plutonium Agreement

The Ominous End of the Russia-U.S. Plutonium Agreement

Moscow is trying to rattle Washington by projecting its political and military might as the most dangerous crisis develops in U.S.-Russian relations since the Cold War era. The suspension of the 2000 plutonium agreement may threaten a whole range of nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation treaties.
12.10.2016
Kremlin-Duma Reshuffle Offers False Hope to Russian Reformers

Kremlin-Duma Reshuffle Offers False Hope to Russian Reformers

The nominal architects of the internal political machine must be replaced with operators: people who will manage the status quo without changing its fundamental principles. This is the role that Sergei Kiriyenko is going to play. It’s a case of the trends dictating the logic of the management, rather than the manager setting the trends.
11.10.2016
Hitting Rock Bottom: U.S.-Russian Relations Plunge Again

Hitting Rock Bottom: U.S.-Russian Relations Plunge Again

The Russian leadership has precipitated an even graver confrontation with the United States, abandoning its ambition for a diplomatic leadership role in Syria. The rupture looks like a preemptive strike by Russia in the context of the U.S. election campaign.
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