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22.03.2017
The Power Struggle Dividing Uzbekistan’s Leadership

The Power Struggle Dividing Uzbekistan’s Leadership

In the apparent battle between Uzbekistan’s two most influential politicians, security service head Rustam Inoyatov will have to either support the new president’s agenda, or attempt to return Uzbekistan to the way it was under the totalitarian late leader Karimov. But the resources he has to achieve the latter are getting smaller and smaller every day.
20.03.2017
Three Dimensions: Can North Korea be Contained?

Three Dimensions: Can North Korea be Contained?

In his first trip to Asia, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has had to contend with North Korea's recent provocations and heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Carnegie.ru asked three experts, one in South Korea, one in Russia, and one in the United States, to comment on the question: "Can North Korea be contained?"
14.03.2017
What’s at Stake in the Armenian Elections?

What’s at Stake in the Armenian Elections?

The parliamentary elections in Armenia aren’t just about President Serzh Sargsyan’s effort to stay in power by swapping his current post for the prime ministership. Armenia’s international allegiances are also up for grabs, leaving Moscow to choose between supporting some opposition politicians and simply throwing its weight behind the ruling party.
10.03.2017
Borderline Anxiety: Putin’s Central Asia Tour

Borderline Anxiety: Putin’s Central Asia Tour

Putin’s recent trip to Central Asia showed that he is willing to pay Russia’s partners in the region for their geopolitical loyalty—even if some republics have refrained from joining the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
3.03.2017
Russia’s New Old Wave of Technocratic Governors

Russia’s New Old Wave of Technocratic Governors

Revitalizing regional governance will only be possible if the Kremlin changes federal budget appropriations to benefit the provinces in addition to appointing ambitious young governors. Recent gubernatorial appointments should thus be seen as little more than a shrewd PR move by Deputy Chief of the Presidential Administration Sergey Kiriyenko and his team.
21.02.2017
Why Turkmenistan Bothered Holding Presidential Elections

Why Turkmenistan Bothered Holding Presidential Elections

Declining hydrocarbon prices and a gas dispute with Russia have kept Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov from bringing back the luster and prosperity of Turkmenistan’s golden age. The next few years promise to be even harder for Turkmenistan’s economy, which is why parliament decided to extend Berdymukhamedov’s term in office from five to seven years.
9.02.2017
Opposition From Within: Russia’s New Counter-Elite

Opposition From Within: Russia’s New Counter-Elite

In political systems that block change through elections, the main guarantee of a regime’s stability is its capacity to absorb a potential counter-elite. At the moment, the regime is preventing any such renewal from occurring. Yet a counter-elite is in the process of formation nonetheless—one that can eventually take Russia in a new direction.
8.02.2017
The Far-Reaching Consequences of Belarus’s Conflict with Russia

The Far-Reaching Consequences of Belarus’s Conflict with Russia

Even if Minsk and Moscow are able to resolve their current dispute, the standoff will go down in history, at least in Belarus. After Belarus’s declaration of independence and the creation of its state infrastructure—its bureaucracy, currency, and armed forces—this conflict will be one of the most important stages in the country’s movement away from Russia.
6.02.2017
Continuity in Kazakhstan: Nazarbayev’s Curious Appeal for Constitutional Reform

Continuity in Kazakhstan: Nazarbayev’s Curious Appeal for Constitutional Reform

If none of the Kazakh president’s current associates will agree to accept the right of another to become the country’s second national leader, it’s inevitable that Kazakhstan will be ruled by some kind of collective leadership after Nazarbayev. However, nothing in the president’s special address suggested any mechanism for the transfer of power.
31.01.2017
The Beginning of the End of Russia’s Power Vertical

The Beginning of the End of Russia’s Power Vertical

Instead of consolidating in the run-up to the 2018 presidential election, Russian elites have started making the structures they manage more autonomous. Uncertain about the future of the system, governors, directors of state-run enterprises, and heads of state bodies are carving out their own personal empires. Once centripetal, the Russian political system is now governed by centrifugal forces.
30.01.2017
The Benefits of Living in Russia’s Hybrid State

The Benefits of Living in Russia’s Hybrid State

It’s completely rational for the elites to avoid change, although it betrays their inability to look beyond the horizon. They are not frightened enough by the current stagnation to initiate changes in the system for their own sake. But what they do fear greatly is losing everything all at once by pulling some crumbling brick out of the system, causing the whole construction to come crashing down.
23.12.2016
History Unvarnished: In Search of Alternative Russian Heroes

History Unvarnished: In Search of Alternative Russian Heroes

For centuries, Russian history has glorified the state and those who sacrifice themselves for the state. It’s time to commemorate a different kind of hero.
22.12.2016
Russia Enters a Time of Transition, by Stealth

Russia Enters a Time of Transition, by Stealth

There are multiple indications that public support for the ruling regime in Russia is provisional and the country is entering a period of post-Putin transition. Neither the authorities nor the opposition is prepared for it.
19.12.2016
Will Mirziyoyev Bring Change to Uzbekistan?

Will Mirziyoyev Bring Change to Uzbekistan?

It will be difficult for Uzbekistan’s new president to bring about foundational change without moving toward some kind of glasnost. Though Uzbekistan’s tightly controlled political system has its limits, Mirziyoyev will have to loosen the reins in one way or another.
16.12.2016
Putin Bides His Time: The Kremlin’s Transition Strategy

Putin Bides His Time: The Kremlin’s Transition Strategy

Vladimir Putin’s annual address to the Federation Council typically lets him map out the country’s foreign and domestic policy course for the coming year. Yet Putin’s speech this time—one of his longest and strangest ever—was essentially an admission that he has little sense of what the events of the coming months will bring or how he plans to deal with them.
15.12.2016
Pensions and Security: Russian Budget Reveals Government Priorities

Pensions and Security: Russian Budget Reveals Government Priorities

The budget clearly illustrates its authors’ thinking. They fear popular discontent and so don’t want to risk taking unpopular steps. The regime’s main goal is short-term stability, so it keeps supporting the paternalistic governing model, which is increasingly trapped in the cycle of social spending.
8.12.2016
Digging Up My Grandfather’s Killers—A Journey Through the Stalinist Archives

Digging Up My Grandfather’s Killers—A Journey Through the Stalinist Archives

I was able to read the secret police files of my grandfather, who died in the Russian gulag in 1946, and then cross-reference the names of the men who persecuted him in the new database published by Memorial. Russia’s grandsons need to confront the truth about what their grandfathers did—but the Russian state would prefer its people to live with historical amnesia.
6.12.2016
Gazprom’s EU Strategy Is a Dead End

Gazprom’s EU Strategy Is a Dead End

The main obstacle to energy negotiations between Russia and the EU is the clash between their perceptions of energy security. Moscow claims that the biggest threat to European energy security is Ukraine’s unreliability as a gas transit country, while Brussels believes the construction of new Russian pipelines circumventing Ukraine will do nothing to improve the EU’s energy security.
2.12.2016
The Rogun Dam: A Source of Division in Central Asia

The Rogun Dam: A Source of Division in Central Asia

Tajikistan, plagued by frequent widespread blackouts, has begun construction of an ambitious dam project that could significantly ease the country’s perennial energy shortages. However, in a region notorious for water disputes, neighboring Uzbekistan is staunchly opposed to the dam. A long-term solution is essential to maintaining peace in the region.
29.11.2016
Three Dimensions: What Does Trump Victory Mean for Ukraine?

Three Dimensions: What Does Trump Victory Mean for Ukraine?

Following Donald Trump’s victory, Carnegie.ru asked three experts, one in Russia, one in Ukraine, and one in the United States, to comment on the question: “What impact will Trump’s victory have on Ukraine?”
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