Economic Crisis

21.11.2017

How Transitional Institutions Could Transform Russia’s Economy

The work of transitional institutions is impossible unless economic agents can be confident that the state will fulfill its obligations and that the rules of the game do not depend on the whims of a particular leader. Statistics show that democracy protects investors from expropriation and from arbitrary changes better than dictatorships do, thereby bringing about increased economic growth.
24.10.2017

RIP Russian Banks: How to Resuscitate a Moribund System

Watching the drama of Russia’s private banks collapsing one by one naturally triggers fear: of more than 3,000 registered banks, about 2,600 have already lost their licenses. After the bailout of Otkritie and BIN, the government’s share in Russia’s banking system assets exceeds 80 percent. Fixing Russia’s banking system requires addressing the deep and systematic flaws in the central bank and the financial sector at large.
15.12.2016

Pensions and Security: Russian Budget Reveals Government Priorities

The budget clearly illustrates its authors’ thinking. They fear popular discontent and so don’t want to risk taking unpopular steps. The regime’s main goal is short-term stability, so it keeps supporting the paternalistic governing model, which is increasingly trapped in the cycle of social spending.
27.10.2016

How Long Until Russia’s Financial Reserves Run Out?

Talk of an impending economic collapse in Russia is misplaced. The Reserve Fund is doing what it was built to do—cushioning the economy from the shock of falling oil and gas prices and giving it time to adjust to new conditions.
30.08.2016

The Battle for Bashneft

In the past, business deals could be secured if Putin endorsed them personally. Now, the Russian president seems to have stopped making promises to anyone; no deal is ironclad anymore.
19.07.2016

Can Russia’s Aviation Industry Compete?

The Russian government has ambitious plans to rebuild the country’s aviation industry. Despite state subsidies for manufacturers, leasing companies, and buyers, however, Russian planes aren’t selling abroad—even in countries like Iran, with which Moscow has strong political ties.
20.06.2016

Worst Friends, Best Enemies: Trade Between the EU and Russia

Trade relations between the EU and Russia will likely remain stable for many years, even as the overall volume of bilateral trade gradually contracts. The EU will grow less dependent on Russia for energy security, while Russia will become less reliant on European finance, industry, and infrastructure.
28.04.2016

Is Investment in Infrastructure the Answer to Russia’s Economic Problems?

It will be nearly impossible for Russia to revive its economy through state investment in infrastructure alone. Conservative estimates suggest that Russia would have to invest 15 percent of its GDP in infrastructure annually for many years to have a significant effect on the economy.
19.04.2016

What Would Economic Disintegration in Russia Look Like?

Russia’s economy will likely contract gradually over the next three to four years and then become increasingly socialized, as the government implements price and currency controls, monopolizes foreign trade, embarks on a large-scale nationalization of private industries, and increasingly regulates salaries and consumption.
14.04.2016

Economic Triage: How Russia Could Cope With the Crisis

The Russian government will attempt to increase state revenues without meaningfully reforming its economic or social welfare system. Its main objective will be to preserve the stability of the regime while continuing to provide support and sources of substantial profits for elite interest groups.
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