Economic Crisis

19.04.2016

What Would Economic Disintegration in Russia Look Like?

Russia’s economy will likely contract gradually over the next three to four years and then become increasingly socialized, as the government implements price and currency controls, monopolizes foreign trade, embarks on a large-scale nationalization of private industries, and increasingly regulates salaries and consumption.
14.04.2016

Economic Triage: How Russia Could Cope With the Crisis

The Russian government will attempt to increase state revenues without meaningfully reforming its economic or social welfare system. Its main objective will be to preserve the stability of the regime while continuing to provide support and sources of substantial profits for elite interest groups.
8.04.2016

Revealing Russia’s Offshore Addiction

The Panama Papers cannot do much damage to the reputation of Putin and his friends, and they have not exposed criminal activity by prominent Russians. But they shed light on a fundamental problem: not even elites trust Russia’s economic, legal, or political system.
30.03.2016

Avoiding the Blame for Russia’s Economic Woes

As Russia enters its second year of economic malaise, elite interest groups that rely on revenue streams from the federal government continue to oppose state budget cuts. But they have successfully managed to escape responsibility for the economic crisis.
25.03.2016

Magna Carta, Not Money: Putin’s Privatizations

The Russian budget won’t be saved by the new round of privatizations announced by the Russian government. What’s more important is how they set out the rules of behavior in the Russian elite.
24.03.2016

Ins and Outs of the Russian Economy

External factors are having little impact on the health of the Russian economy. Sanctions and counter-sanctions are not a big factor either. An effort to make Russia self-sufficient and rely on import substitution poses a much bigger danger.
3.03.2016

Sources of Russia’s Stagnation

Lack of investment, a deficit of trust of the private sector in the government, and a drain of migrant workers and professionals make it much harder for Russia to recover from its current economic malaise.
2.03.2016

Predicting Russia’s Economic Health

Over the last decade and a half, the Russian economy has undergone a classical resource cycle, and now it lacks both the capacity and the momentum for new growth. But the wealth accumulated in the boom years will insulate the country against a crash for at least three years.
1.03.2016

Are Russians Feeling the Economic Crisis?

Thus far, the Russian government has been able to quell popular discontent over the ongoing economic crisis. But time is running short: in a year and a half to two years, the Kremlin will have a real crisis on its hands.
4.01.2016

What’s in Store for the Russian Economy in 2016?

There is no reason to expect any serious changes in the Russian economy in 2016. The coming year is likely to see a behind-the-scenes struggle between two special interest groups: those who will profit if industries are nationalized, and those who will benefit from foreign investment.
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