Carnegie Moscow Center
Signs of strength are emerging in the Russian economy, aided by increasing exports, oil prices, and industrial production. However, weak domestic demand may hamper the recovery’s sustainability.
The economic crisis has devastated the Russian economy, where GDP is expected to contract by nearly 10 percent in 2009. Despite optimism among government experts, ballooning debt and plummeting revenues threaten the recovery effort.
The absence of security, law enforcement or effective central government has created a vacuum in Afghanistan. The Taliban are conducting a campaign to eliminate government contact with the population and compel the people to accept Taliban rule.
The alienation of ethnic Pashtuns is a major factor in the Taliban’s success in southern Afghanistan, but it could seriously impair the group’s progress in the north.
Questions remain whether Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov ordered the recent murders of human rights activists in Chechnya, or whether the crimes were an attempt by his opponents to discredit his leadership.
In Kabul many of the issues affecting Afghanistan – ineffective governance, the Taliban's expanding influence, and a massive foreign presence – are on stark display.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO's new Secretary-General, must provide transformational leadership, not just status-quo management, for the alliance to bridge the chasm between its ambitions and its capacities.
Vice President Joe Biden’s recent controversial remarks on Russia underscore how vulnerable the effort to reset relations will remain so long as it depends more on words and symbols than on concrete actions with tangible results.
President Obama faces domestic opposition to ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Russia can take steps to help the U.S. supporters of the CTBT overcome that resistance.
U.S. President Barack Obama made a good start at resetting the relationship with Russia in his first visit to Moscow. He now has to ensure that the American side follows-up on his openings and insist that his colleague in Moscow does the same.
Russia remains hobbled by an unfulfilled need to diversify its economy and to strengthen the independence of its economic and judicial systems. A global turnaround will not solve these problems.
The economic crisis has had a clear impact on the already impoverished countries of Central Asia, but few Americans and Europeans have noticed. China and Russia have stepped in to provide aid, and their investments threaten institutional reform in the region.
Russia’s response to the global economic crisis has focused on supporting corporations and the financial sector. The deepening social impact of the downturn suggests that leaders should concentrate on cushioning the blow to the poor and the vulnerable.