Eurasia in Transition

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    What Really Lies Behind the Belarusian Crackdown on Independent Media

    Judging by how they are preparing for it, the Belarusian authorities apparently expect that a threat to stability could arise quite soon. It’s not clear how they envisage the source of the danger: economic problems, an information attack from the East or West, or perhaps they are contemplating carrying out painful reforms. But what is clear is that they have serious concerns about how non-state media would behave if something did happen.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Inside the Explosive Case Against Armenia’s Ex-President

    The case against ex-president Robert Kocharyan has become the most explosive episode in Armenian politics since this past spring’s Velvet Revolution. It has unnerved Moscow, as well as Kocharyan’s allies in Yerevan, with the former fearing that Armenia is pivoting to the West and the latter accusing the Nikol Pashinyan government of political persecution. But the case against Kocharyan is neither geopolitical nor the beginning of a campaign of terror—it is all about the March 1 affair, Armenia’s Bloody Sunday.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Belarus’s Second Front: Is Lukashenko Really Afraid of Russia?

    In the past few years, Minsk has started citing Russia as its main threat—but only as a theory intended primarily for external consumption. Now it has been dangled before domestic audiences.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    The Specter of Revolution: Moldova’s Future Hangs On Protests

    The decision to annul the opposition’s victory in Chi?inau’s mayoral election is among the most confrontational taken by Moldova’s self-avowedly pro-European authorities. But the convergence of internal and external factors that the anti-government protests need to succeed has not yet occurred. The defeat of anti-government forces shortly before decisive parliamentary elections will leave Moldovan society even more apathetic.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Belarus, the Tactical Peacemaker

    Belarus’s newfound role as a peacemaker has helped Minsk gain previously unimaginable freedom of maneuver with both the West and Russia. Minsk will likely continue to defend and uphold its status as a mediator, even if warring parties do not want to negotiate.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    What to Expect from Armenia’s New Leader

    It’s hard to call Pashinyan left- or right-wing, pro-Western or pro-Russian. He has two images: one of a charismatic revolutionary, capable of getting people on the streets to rally behind him, and the other as a pragmatic politician ready to make compromises and form tactical unions.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Armenia’s Revolution and the Legacy of 1988

    The unexpected collapse of Armenia’s ruling regime is better understood if you study the story of Armenia’s break with the Soviet regime in 1988. The country has a legacy of peaceful protest, national solidarity, but is also trapped by a strong nationalist discourse.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Who Wins From Russia-West Tensions in the Post-Soviet Space?

    The surge of third powers in the post-Soviet space is propelled by the twin engines of rising demand for alternatives to Russia and the West, and growing supply of new ambitious economic and political regional players. The overall effect of these trends is to offer most post-Soviet states an increasing array of foreign, economic, and political options, and a wider and more stable foundation for much-coveted multi-vectoral foreign policies in which they can more often say no, if they want to—to both Moscow and Western capitals.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    A Needless Rivalry? Russia and the EU in Central Asia

    Central Asia currently resembles parts of the Middle East before the Arab Spring. In contrast to other parts of the post-Soviet space, where Russian and EU interests are in direct competition, the region has the potential to be a place of cooperation in the name of common goals.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    The Southern Vector: Russia’s Need to Upgrade Its Policy in the South Caucasus

    To ensure its national security, Russia needs a comprehensive strategy in the South Caucasus region.

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