Tsai Chung-Min of National Chengchi University, Chen Chih-Jou of Academia Sinica, Quansheng Zhao of American University, and Hua Shiping of the University of Louisville analyzed the internal dynamics of Mainland China and how they might impact cross-strait relations. Michael McDevitt of the Center for Naval Analyses moderated, and the National War College’s Bernard Cole provided commentary.
China’s Growing Economic Challenges
China is facing an array of economic challenges, especially inflation, which has been exacerbated by droughts in northern China and frost in eastern China. Tsai explained that China has enlarged the state’s presence in the market to confront these challenges. However, such a hybrid state-owned/private model poses a threat to China’s continued economic vibrancy.
Popular Protests in China
The number of popular protests in China has grown in recent years. Chen explained that most of these protests are not organized movements based in civil society, but rather more spontaneous objections to specific grievances. Based on an analysis of a database of protests covering 2001 to 2010, compiled from open-source reports, Chen reported that rural protests tended to be more violent (55 percent) than urban protests (30 percent), and local government responses to protests vary widely.
Internal PRC Politics and Cross-Strait Relations
Zhao observed that arms sales are of greater symbolic significance than actual military significance. He noted that Beijing is making an effort to appear more flexible, while remaining cautious, on issues related to Taiwan’s international representation. Cole noted that domestic political issues weigh more heavily than cross-strait issues in the minds of the PRC leadership. He also observed that there is no military balance across the strait without major U.S. involvement. The real issue is political, economic, and social balance.
China’s Political Culture
According to Hua, China has demonstrated that it can be quite accommodating in territorial disputes with border countries but not on “internal issues” like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao. He also noted that the development of the rule of law in China has been heavily influenced by the United States, a source of concern to PRC leftists. At least seventeen of the 20 major pieces of PRC legislation borrow directly from U.S. legislation.
The Role of Nationalism in the PRC
Nationalism has become a substitute for Marxism as a unifying force, Hua contended. However, he suggested that such nationalism comes from Chinese minds rather than hearts, and thus is less deeply rooted. He also stated that since it is now focused on Japan, Taiwan, and Tibet, nationalism in China is not concentrated as heavily on Taiwan.