Carnegie Moscow Center
Russia’s problems with Crimea and Crimea’s problems with Russia will only continue to grow.
The Western approach to Russia is predicated on the supposition that continued pressure on the country will cause Vladimir Putin’s regime to make concessions or even crumble. However, this is far from the truth.
Putin and his policy attract sympathizers in Europe from both far left and far right. However, Russian ideologists have such a poor idea of who supports them overseas that they failed to assemble and present a convincing contingent of supporters, only embarrassing themselves in the end.
The post-Soviet elites use the system that Lee Kuan Yew constructed in Singapore to justify political crackdown. However, Lee himself believed that resource-based dictatorships will fail to replicate Singapore’s success, since restricting freedoms is not the cornerstone of his model.
Putin stated that the Russian leadership was ready to use nuclear forces in the days of the Crimean annexation, bringing back the old threat of nuclear war.
It is extremely difficult to predict the prospects for new comprehensive agreements on nuclear threat reduction in the midst of the current international crisis. But crises do not last forever, and there may come a time when all of the facets of the unique Nunn-Lugar program will be deemed useful.
In character and attitude, Germany and Russia are the antipodes in today’s international system. That could explain perhaps both the closeness the two countries have felt for years and the growing confrontation which has come with the Ukraine crisis.
As Russia and the West enter a period of prolonged mutual resentment and distrust, the post-Soviet space remains the most volatile issue in their relationship.
The Ukrainian government retains the prerogative to exclude violators of public trust from further government service while new political and economic institutions are built. It remains to be seen how lustration and anti-corruption laws will be implemented.
The war in Ukraine has given Russia a pretext for the military and patriotic consolidation and militarist survival paradigm.